Mobile Games Subscription & Download, 2007-2012 (Fourth Edition)

This fourth edition of the mobile games report provides an all-encompassing view of the fast-developing mobile games market. Focusing on downloadable and subscription-based games, the report outlines the strategies that operators, vendors and publishers should employ in order to maximise their respective returns in the mobile games sector. Through a combination of one-to-one interviews with leading company executives and in-depth primary research, this extensive study offers detailed analysis of the major hurdles towards customer adoption and retention. The strategic report also provides company profiles for more than 20 games publishers and developers , together with an examination of gaming business models and a discussion of how the mobile games value chain is likely to evolve. Furthermore, it also provides a consistent five year forecasting suite up until 2012.

Key Questions the report answers:

• What strategies should operators, vendors and publishers employ to maximise their respective returns in the mobile gaming sector?
• What is the current and future size of the mobile games market?
• What are the key drivers in the mobile games market?
• What impact has 3G had on the mobile games market?
• What are the major hurdles to greater adoption of mobile games?
• How has the mobile games value chain developed?
• Who are the major players in the mobile games market?
• How much revenue will be generated from advertising in mobile games?

Glossary

Executive Summary

Introduction

Types of Mobile Games

The Market for Mobile Games

Figure ES.1: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games (One
Time Downloads and Subscriptions). Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table ES.1: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games (One
Time Downloads and Subscriptions). Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Figure ES.2: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games
Payment Type, 2007-2012.

Table ES.2: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games
Payment Type, 2007-2012.

Figure ES3: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games 2007-2012.

Table ES3: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games 2007-2012.

The Hurdles to Mobile Games Adoption

Table ES4: The Hurdles for Mobile Gambling

1. Technology

1.1 Introduction

1.2 2G

1.2.1 Communication Technologies of 2G

i. GSM

ii. TDMA

iii. CDMA

iv. D-AMPS

1.2.2 Data Services

i. SMS

a. The Working of SMS

Figure 1.1: SMS Message Flow

b. Types of Messaging Services

- Mobile-originated SMS

- Mobile-terminated SMS

c. Premium-rate SMS (PRSMS)

1.3 2.5 & 2.75G

1.3.1 Communication Technologies of 2.5/2.75G

i. GPRS

ii. EDGE

iii. CDMA2000

1.3.2 Data Services

i. MMS

a. How Does MMS Work?

Figure 1.2: MMS Application Services

b. MMS Services

- MMS Entertainment and Information Services

Figure 1.3: Nokia’s 6280 3G Handset Supporting Video Streaming

c. Personalisation

1.3.3 The SMS/MMS Value Chain

Figure 1.4: SMS/MMS Value Chain

1.4 3G

Figure 1.5 3G Access Technologies

Figure 1.6: Growth in 3G Subscriber Base by Technology, 2002 - Q1 2007

Figure 1.7: Percentage of Mobile Users Who Own 3G Devices, December 2006
(Selected Countries)

Figure 1.8: Global 3G Subscriber Base, December 2006

1.4.1 UMTS

Figure 1.9: Evolution of UMTS

i. WCDMA

ii. EV-DO

iii. TD-SCDMA

1.5 Beyond 3G

1.5.1 HSPA

1.5.2 3GLTE

1.5.3 CDMA2000 1x EV-DO Revisions A and B

1.5.4 UMB

1.5.5 Mobile WiMAX 802.16e-2005

Figure 1.10: WiMAX Timeline

1.6 Mobile Technologies Compared

Table 1.1: Comparative Chart of Mobile Technologies

1.7 Other Enabling Technologies

1.7.1 Wireless Internet Technologies

i. WAP

a. The Development of WAP

b. The Future of WAP - Where is WAP Heading?

Figure 1.11: Future Path of WAP

ii. The i-mode Alternative

Figure 1.12: NTT DoCoMo, i-mode Subscriber Growth (m) and i-mode

Penetration of Total User Base (%) 2000-Q2 2007

1.7.2 Languages, Platforms and Operating Systems

i. Languages

a. Java

ii. Platforms

a. J2ME

b. BREW

iii. Operating Systems

a. Palm OS

b. Symbian

c. Windows Mobile

1.7.3 Other Relevant Technologies and Standards

i. MP3

Figure 1.13: MP3 Phones: Nokia N91 and Sony Ericsson K800

ii. MP4

iii. MIDI

iv. Bluetooth

2. Cellular Market Growth

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Growth of the Cellular Market

2.2.1 Global Cellular Subscriber Market

Figure 2.1: Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2005-2012

Table 2.1: Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2005-2012

Figure 2.2: Cellular Subscriber Base, Market Share by Region (%), 2005-2012

Figure 2.3: Cellular Subscribers Penetration (%) by Region

2.2.2 Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base

Table 2.2: Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base (m) Q1 2007

2.2.3 Growth of 3G

Table 2.3: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Figure 2.4: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3 Regional Cellular Market Growth

2.3.1 North America

Figure 2.5: North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.4: North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3.2 South America

Figure 2.6: South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.5: South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3.3 Western Europe

Figure 2.7: Western Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.6: Western Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3.4 Eastern Europe

Figure 2.8: Eastern Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.7: Eastern Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3.5 Far East & China

Figure 2.9: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.8: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3.6 Indian Sub Continent

Figure 2.10: Indian Sub Continent Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.9: Indian Sub Continent Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3.7 Rest of Asia Pacific

Figure 2.11: Rest of Asia Pacific Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.10: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3.8 Middle East & Africa

Figure 2.12: Middle East & Africa Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.11: Middle East & Africa Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.4 The Opportunity for Mobile Entertainment

Figure 2.13: Percentage of Operator-billed ARPU Attributable to Mobile
Entertainment Services, Selected Markets in 2006

Figure 2.14: Value of Operator-billed ARPU ($) Attributable to Mobile
Entertainment Services, Selected Markets in 2006

Figure 2.15: Monthly Voice ARPU ($), UK, Germany, Italy and US, 2003-2006

2.5 The Opportunity for Mobile Games

2.5.1 Universality

Figure 2.16: Global User Base (m), Mobile Handsets, Consoles and Handhelds, June 2007

2.5.2 Low Level of Mobile Games Penetration

2.5.3 Technological Advances

2.5.4 Gaming Demographics

2.5.5 Rise in Casual Gaming

2.5.6 Increased Activity from Leading Brands

3. The Mobile Games Industry

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Classification of Games

3.2.1 Technology Requirements

i. Embedded Games

ii. SMS/MMS Games

iii. Browsing Games

iv. J2ME Games

v. BREW Games

vi. Native OS Games:

3.2.2 Number of Players

i. Soloplay Games:

ii. Multiplayer Games:

3.2.3 Genre

Table 3.1: Games Genre

i. Action Games

ii. Logic/Puzzle/Skill Games

iii. Sports and Racing Games

iv. Arcade Games

v. Role Playing Games

vi. Card and Casino Games

vii. Movie Games

viii. Adult Games

ix. Lifestyle Games

3.3 Demographics of Gamers

3.3.1 Youth Market

3.3.2 Teens and Tweens

3.3.3 Core Games Players

3.3.4 Adult Gamers

3.4 Recent Trends in Mobile Games

Figure 3.1: Trends in the Mobile Games Industry

3.4.1 Technological Trends

i. Deployment of Improved Networks

ii. Handset Evolution

Figure 3.2: Cycle of Technology Factors

3.4.2 Social and Demographic Trends

i. Change in Demographic Patterns

3.4.3 Market Trends

i. Consolidation and Expansion

ii. In-game Advertising

iii. Availability of Games Titles

iv. Enhanced Quality of Games

v. Outsourcing Development and Porting

3.6 Value-Web of Mobile Games

Figure 3.3: Value-chain of Mobile Games

3.6.1 Rights Holders

3.6.2 Games Developers

3.6.3 Games Publisher

3.6.4 Aggregators

3.6.5 Network Operators

3.6.6 Handset Vendors

3.6.7 Users

3.6.8 Other Value Web Members

3.7 Business Models

3.7.1 Embedded Games

3.7.2 Pay-Per-Download

Table 3.2: Standard and Premium Mobile Game Download Prices ($), Selected Markets

3.7.3 Pay-Per-Play

3.7.4 Subscription/Rental

3.7.5 Advertising

i. Strengths

ii. Weaknesses

iii. Opportunities

iv. Threats

3.7.6 Play for Money

4. Players in Mobile Games Development and Publication

4.1 Big Blue Bubble

4.2 Digital Chocolate

Figure 4.1: Screenshots of Cafe Solitaire and Cafe Sudoku

4.3 Electronic Arts (EA)

Figure 4.2: Screenshots of Popular EA Games: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, Medal of Honor Airborne, SKATE

4.4 Finblade

4.5 fugumobile

Figure 4.3: Screenshots of fugumobile Games: Chicken Lethal, Marijuana Bush - The Tijuana Takedown

4.6 funmobile

Figure 4.4: Screenshots of funmobile Titles: Heart of Mechanics, Pirate’s Chest

4.7 Gameloft

Figure 4.5: Screenshots of Popular Gameloft Titles: Desperate Housewives, Shrek the Third, Lost

4.8 Glu Mobile

Figure 4.6: Screenshots of Popular Glu Mobile Games: Asteroids, Project Gotham Racing Mobile, White House Rumble

4.9 Hands-On Mobile

Figure 4.7: Screenshots of Popular Games from Hands-On Mobile: Call of Duty 2, LEGO Bricks, Silver Surfer

4.10 Hudson Soft

Figure 4.8: Screenshots of Popular Hudson Games: 6 Shooter: Most Wanted, Gravity Blast, Advanced Karpov 3D Chess

4.11 I-play

Figure 4.9: Screenshots of Popular I-play Games: 4 Wheel Xtreme, ER Rush, Sexy Pillowfight

4.12 In-Fusio

Figure 4.10: Screenshots of Popular In-fusio Games: Asterix and Cleopatra, Line Rider, Penguin Fever

4.13 Indiagames/IG FUN

Figure 4.11: Screenshots of Recent Indiagames/IG FUN Titles: Battle Chess, Bruce Lee - Iron Fist, Rush Hour 3

4.14 Mobliss

4.15 Namco Bandai

4.16 Ozura Mobile

Figure 4.12: Screenshots of Popular Ozura Mobile Games: Come On Baby, The Lake Monster, Zombie Zapster

4.17 Square Enix

4.18 THQ Wireless

Figure 4.13: Screenshots of Popular THQ Wireless Games: NFL Gridiron, Worms 07, MotoGP Manager

4.19 Telcogames

Figure 4.14: Screenshots of Popular Telcogames Titles: Another World Deluxe, Flexis Extreme, SiL

4.20 Vivendi Games Mobile

Figure 4.15: Screenshots of Popular Vivendi Games Mobile Titles: Leisure Suit Larry: Love for Sail, Surviving Hollywood, The Incredible Machine

4.21 Walt Disney Internet Group

Figure 4.16: Screenshots of Popular Disney Games

5. Hurdles and Regulations

5.1 Hurdles to Customer Adoption and Retention

5.1.1 Expanding the Demographic

Figure 5:1: Petz Screenshot

5.1.2 The User Interface

i. Difficulty in Discovering Services and Content

Figure 5.2: Optimised for the Mobile Internet: Nokia N95 and Samsung i520V

ii. Difficulty In Accessing Services and Content

iii. Difficulty in Navigating Services and Content

iv. Difficulty in Utilising Multiple Applications Simultaneously

5.1.3 Network Speed and Coverage

5.1.4 Service Pricing and Development Costs

5.1.4 Cost of Data Services

Table 5.1: UK Operator Data Prices ($), June 2007

5.1.6 Handset Form, Capacity and Battery Life

Figure 5.3: Touchscreen Handsets: iPhone and the LG Prada

5.1.7 Industry Structure

5.2 Regulation

5.2.1 PEGI Games Ratings

Figure 5.4: Icons Showing Content Descriptors and Age Ratings of Mobile Games

5.2.2 OMA Standards

5.2.3 Government Regulatory Organisations

Table 5.2: Mobile Game Regulatory Authorities

5.2.4 Other Regulations - Mobile Content

i. Self Regulation - The Operators’ Approach

a. Independent Mobile Classification Body (IMCB)

b. Internet Content Rating Association (ICRA)

ii. ICSTIS/PhonepayPlus

iii. OFCOM

iv. CTIA

v. Pan-European Legislation

a. Directive 95/46/EC: Processing Personal Data and the Protection of Privacy

b. The E-Commerce Sector Data Protection Directive (2002/58/EC)

c. The Distance Selling Directive (97/7/EC)

d. The E-money Directive

6. The Market for Mobile Games

6.1 Introduction

Table 6.1: Top 10 Mobile Games 12 Months to October 2007, GameZone

Figure: 6.1 Categories of Leading Games 12 Months to October 2007, GameZone

6.2 Forecast Definitions and Methodology

6.2.1 Forecast Definitions

6.2.2 Forecast Methodology

Figure 6.2 Forecast Methodology.

6.3 The Market for One Time Download Mobile Games

6.3.1 One Time Download Mobile Games Users and Usage

Table 6.2: % Mobile Phone Users Who Download Games. Regional Forecast 2006-2011.

Figure 6.3: Mobile Phone Users (m) Who Download Games. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.3: Mobile Phone Users (m) Who Download Games. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Figure 6.4: Average Number of One Time Game Downloads by “Games” Mobile Users per Year. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.4: Average Number of One Time Game Downloads by “Games” Mobile Users per Year. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Figure 6.5: Total Number of One Time Game Downloads by Games Mobile Users per Year (m). Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.5: Total Number of One Time Game Downloads by Games Mobile Users per Year (m). Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

6.3.2 Mobile Games One Time Download Revenues

Table 6.6: Average Price ($) Paid per One Time Game Download. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.7: Percentage of One Time Game Downloads Funded by Advertising. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Figure 6.6: Total Revenues ($m) from One Time Mobile Games Downloads. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.8: Total Revenues ($m) from One Time Mobile Games Downloads. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

6.3.3 One Time Mobile Game Download ARPU

Figure 6.7: Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Game One Time Downloads ($). Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.9: Monthly ARPU for Mobile Game One Time Downloads ($). Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

6.4 The Market for Subscription and Rental Mobile Games

6.4.1 Mobile Games Subscription and Rental Users and Usage

Table 6.10: % Mobile Phone Users Who Subscribe to, or Rent, Mobile Games. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Figure 6.8: Mobile Phone Users (m) Who Subscribe to, or Rent, Mobile Games. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.11: Mobile Phone Users (m) Who Subscribe to, or Rent, Mobile Games. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Figure 6.9: Average Number of Game Subscriptions, or Rentals by “Games” Mobile Users per Year. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.12: Average Number of Game Subscriptions, or Rentals by “Games” Mobile Users per Year - Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Figure 6.10: Total Mobile Game Subscriptions/Rentals (m). Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.13: Total Mobile Game Subscriptions/Rentals (m). Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

6.4.2 Mobile Game Subscription and Rental Revenues

Table 6.14: Average Price ($) Paid per Mobile Game Rental/Subscription. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Figure 6.11: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Game Subscriptions and Rentals. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.15: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Game Subscriptions and Rentals. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

6.4.3 Mobile Games Subscription and Rental Monthly ARPU

Figure 6.12: Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Game Subscriptions and Rentals. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.16: Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

6.5 Total Mobile Games Revenues

6.5.1 End-User Generated Revenues

Figure 6.13: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games 2007- 2012.

Table 6.17: Total End-User Generated Revenues from Mobile Games ($million) 2007-2012.

6.5.2 Advertising Revenues

Figure 6.14 Total Revenues ($m) from Advertising in Mobile Games. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.18 Total Revenues ($m) from Advertising in Mobile Games. Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

6.5.3 Total Revenues (End-User Generated and Advertising)

Figure 6.15: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games 2007-2012.

Table 6.19: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games 2007-2012.

7. Recommendations

7.1 Recommendations for Operators

7.2 Recommendations for Operators and Publishers

7.3 Recommendations for Publishers

7.4 Recommendations for Publishers and Developers

7.5 Recommendations for Vendors