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Mobile Money Transfer & Remittances: Markets, Forecasts & Strategies 2009-2014

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Juniper Research Limited
Published: October 2009
Product Code: R399-254
Description
This report provides a thorough analysis of the key issues and trends influencing the Global Mobile Remittance market. The structure and ecosystem of the sector is presented alongside a discussion of the key market trends and player initiatives. Revenue opportunities are identified and clear recommendations made for players in the market.

Four comprehensive forecasting suites are presented that detail the opportunity for national mobile money transfers, international money transfers, sophisticated financial services and global mobile money transfers as a whole. Mobile money transfer users are projected as well as transaction frequencies, size of transactions and their associated values for each of these market segments.

The report looks in detail at the exciting opportunity for improving the lives of the ‘great unbanked’ around the world as well as identifying opportunities in the developed world. The status and growth potential for the global money transfer market is quantified alongside the analysis of key developments expected over 2009 and 2010 period.

Key questions the report answers
  • What is the opportunity for mobile network operators to increase their ARPU?
  • What are the early usage experiences of companies providing these services?
  • Which will be the leading regions in the market in 2014?
  • How many mobile users will make money transfers over the next six years?
  • What will be typical transaction sizes?
  • How often will users make mobile money remittances?
  • What market traction is forecast for sophisticated financial services such as savings accounts and loans?
Interviews and case studies

Included in the report are profiles and case studies of the key mobile money transfer vendors and applications providers as well as Operators and service providers. CxO level interviews provide up to the minute feedback on market developments, market trends and issues as viewed from different vendors in the market.

This report also provides a regional analysis of the development of money transfer and remittances and how they might develop in the next five years. The report draws out the key market drivers and constraints for the future of the money transfer market including the impact of the recession on this emerging sector.
Table of Contents

Glossary

Executive Summary

ES1 Introduction

ES2 What’s New in Mobile Money Transfer?

Figure ES.1: Total Active Mobile Money Transfer Services and Beyond Split by 8 Key Regions 2008 - 2010

Figure ES.2: Mobile Money Ecosystem Operator Types

ES3 Money Transfers: Setting the Scene

ES3.1 Transformational Banking

ES3.2 Money Transfer Market Drivers

ES3.3 Market Segmentation

i. National Transfers

ii. New Segment: Sophisticated Financial Services

iii. International Transfers or Remittances

ES4 Important New Market Forecast Trends

ES5 User Forecasts

ES6 Transaction Value Forecasts

ES7 Service Provider Revenue Opportunity

ES8 Mobile Money Transfer Ecosystem Players

ES9 Recommendations

1. Mobile Commerce & Payments Market Trends

1.1 Introduction

Figure 1.1: Telstra 1H 2009 Mobile Revenues Split by Voice and Data

1.2 Market Drivers and Constraints

Figure 1.2: Mobile Payments: Summary of Market Drivers & Constraints

1.2.1 Drivers

1.2.2 Constraints

1.3 Mobile Payments Market Structure

1.3.1 Definition

Figure 1.3: Generic mCommerce Payment Process

1.4 Segmentation

1.4.1 Mobile Commerce Segments

Figure 1.4: Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation

i. Categories of Mobile Payments

a) Remote Mobile Payment Sub-segments

b) Point of Sale Payment Sub-segments

1.5 Classification of Payment Schemes

Table 1.1: Mobile Payment Classification

1.5.1 Remote Mobile Payment

i. Person-to-Person (P2P) Payment

ii. Mobile Phone Bill - “D2B” (direct to bill) Payment

iii. PRSMS (Premium Rate SMS) - Digital Goods

iv. Online - Payment for the Mobile Web & WAP Billing

v. SMS Payment - Mobile Wallet and Account Based Payment

Figure 1.5: PayPal Mobile “Text To Buy”

vi. Remote Physical/ Mobile Web & WAP Billing

1.5.2 POS (Point of Sale) Mobile Payment

i. NFC Payments

ii. Text and PIN

1.6 On Deck & Off Deck

2. Money Transfers: Setting the Scene

2.1 Transformational and Additive Banking

Table 2.1: Transformational and Additive Banking

2.2 Drivers and Constraints

Figure 2.1: Mobile Money Transfer: Drivers and Constraints

2.2.1 Mobile Money Transfer Drivers

2.2.2 Mobile Money Transfer Constraints

2.3 Payments in the Underbanked Developed World

Figure 2.2: USA Bank Account Ownership

2.4 World Bank Remittances Forecasts

Figure 2.3: World Remittance Flows to Developing Countries ($bn) 2008-2011

2.5 GSMA Mobile Money Initiatives

2.5.1 MMT (Mobile Money Transfer)

2.5.2 MMU (Mobile Money for the Unbanked)

2.6 Mobile Money Transfer Services and Trials

Figure 2.4: Total Active Mobile Money Transfer Services and Beyond Split by 8 Key Regions 2008 - 2010

Table 2.2: Total Active Mobile Money Transfer Services and Beyond Split by 8 Key Regions 2008 - 2010

3. Vendors & Applications

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Fundamo

i. Overview

ii. Market Update

iii. Product Update

iv. Market Issues

3.3 Sybase 365

i Products and Markets Update

ii Market Trends and Lessons Learned

3.4 Mi-Pay

i Products and Markets Update

ii Market Trends

3.5 Utiba

3.6 Trivnet

3.7 Roamware/Macalla

4. Operators & Services

4.1 Variety of Operator Types

Figure 4.1: Mobile Money Ecosystem Operator Types

4.2 Safaricom M-PESA

i Service Description

ii Service Statistics

Figure 4.2: M-PESA Tariff

4.3 Smart Money

Figure 4.3: SmartMoney Service Features

4.4 Western Union

i Strategy Insight

Figure 4.4: Western Union Customers - Mobile Usage

ii Market Feedback

iii UK/Kenya Pilot International Service

Figure 4.5: Cash2Kenya Pilot Service Screenshot and Phone

4.5 Nokia Money

4.6 MoneyBox Africa

Figure 4.6: MoneyBox P2P Payment Process

4.7 MasterCard

i. MasterCard MoneySend

ii. MasterCard MoneySend Strategy

iii. MasterCard MoneySend Markets

4.8 Yellow Pepper

i. Latin America Strategy

ii. Transaction Trends

4.9 Celcom

Figure 4.7: Celcom AirCash Charges

4.10 Phone1 US

4.11 Visa

i. Visa Mobile Strategy

Figure 4.8: Visa Mobile Strategy

ii. Visa Mobile Money Services

4.12 Obopay


Figure 4.9: Obopay iPhone Screenshot

4.13 Belgacom ICS HomeSend Service

Figure 4.10: Belgacom ICS HomeSend Solution

Figure 4.11: HomeSend Information & Funds Flow

4.14 Globe GCASH

5. Mobile Money Transfer Forecasts

5.1 Market Segmentation

5.1.1 National Transfers

5.1.2 Sophisticated Financial Services

5.1.3 International Transfers or Remittances

5.2 Methodology

5.2.1 Approach and Assumptions

Figure 5.1: Mobile Money Transfer Market Forecast Methodology

5.2.2 Geographical Splits

5.3 Mobile Subscriber Forecast

Figure 5.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 5.1: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

5.4 Transaction Value Forecasts for All Mobile Money Transfers

Figure 5.6: Total Value of All Mobile Money Transfers p.a. ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Forecasts 2009 - 2014

Table 5.3: Total Value of All Mobile Money Transfers p.a. ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Forecasts 2009 - 2014

Figure 5.7: Comparison of National, Sophisticated Financial Services & International Mobile Money Transfer Values (% of total) 2009 - 2014

Table 5.4: Comparison of National, Sophisticated Financial Services & International Mobile Money Transfer Values (% of total) 2009 - 2014

5.5 Service Provider Revenue Opportunity Forecasts

Figure 6.3: Roshan Tariffs

Figure 5.4: Zain Zap Tariffs

5.6 Total Service Provider Revenue Opportunity

Figure 5.5: Total Service Provider Mobile Money Transfer Revenue Opportunity p.a. ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 5.2: Total Service Provider Mobile Money Transfer Revenue Opportunity p.a. ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

6. National Money Transfer Forecasts

6.1 User Forecasts

6.1.1 Main Trends

i. Total National Money Transfer Users

ii. Africa & Middle East

iii. Far East & China

iv. Indian Sub Continent

Figure 6.1: Number of Mobile Users Making National Transfers (m at year end) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

v. Rest of Asia Pacific

vi. South America

vii. Eastern Europe

viii. North America & Western Europe

Table 6.1: Number of Mobile Users Making National Transfers (m at year end) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Figure 6.2: Number of Mobile Users Making National Transfers (m average) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 6.2: Number of Mobile Users Making National Transfers (m average) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

6.2 Transaction Traffic Forecasts

Figure 6.3: Average Number of National Mobile Money Transfer Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 6.3: Average Number of National Mobile Money Transfer Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Figure 6.4: Total Number of National Mobile Money Transfer Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 6.4: Total Number of National Mobile Money Transfer Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

6.3 Transaction Size Forecasts

Figure 6.5: Average Size of National Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014 92

Table 6.5: Average Size of National Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

6.4 Transaction Value Forecasts

Figure 6.6: Total Value of National Transactions p.a. ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014 93

Table 6.6: Total Value of National Transactions p.a. ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

6.5 Transaction Value per User Forecasts

Figure 6.7: National Transaction Value per User p.a. ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 6.7: National Transaction Value per User p.a. ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

6.6 Service Provider Revenue Opportunity Forecast

Figure 6.8: Service Provider National Mobile Money Transfer Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014

Table 6.8: Service Provider National Mobile Money Transfer Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014

7. Microcredits, Savings & Insurance Payment Forecasts

7.1 Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services Defined

7.2 User Forecasts

Figure 7.1: Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services Users (m at year end) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 7.1: Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services Users (m at year end) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Figure 7.2: Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services Users (m average) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 7.2: Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services Users (m average) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

7.3 Transaction Traffic Forecasts

Figure 7.3: Average Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 7.3: Average Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Figure 7.4: Total Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 7.4: Total Number of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

7.4 Transaction Size Forecasts

Figure 7.5: Average Size of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 7.5: Average Size of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

7.5 Transaction Value Forecasts Figure 7.6: Total Value of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Transactions p.a. ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 7.6: Total Value of Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Transactions p.a. ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

7.6 Transaction Value per User Forecasts

Figure 7.7: Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Transaction Value per User p.a. ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 7.7: Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Transaction Value per User p.a. ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

7.7 Service Provider Revenue Opportunity Forecast

Figure 7.8: Service Provider Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 7.8: Service Provider Sophisticated Mobile Financial Service Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

7.8 Incremental Value from Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services

Figure 7.9: Incremental Value from Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services Compared to National Mobile Money Transfers (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014

Table 7.9: Incremental Value from Sophisticated Mobile Financial Services Compared to National Mobile Money Transfers (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014

8. International Money Transfer Forecasts

8.1 Impact of the Recession

Figure 8.1: Remittance Flows to Developing Countries - Growth (%) 2005 - 2011

8.2 User Forecasts

Figure 8.2: Number of Mobile Users Sending International Transfers (m at year end) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 8.1: Number of Mobile Users Sending International Transfers (m at year end) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Figure 8.3: Number of Mobile Users Sending International Transfers (m average) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 8.2: Number of Mobile Users Sending International Transfers (m average) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

8.2 Transaction Size Forecasts

Figure 8.4: Average Size of International Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014 113

Table 8.3: Average Size of International Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014 113

8.3 Transaction Traffic Forecasts

Figure 8.5: Average Number of International Mobile Money Transfers Sent per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 8.4: Average Number of International Mobile Money Transfers Sent per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Figure 8.6: Total Number of International Mobile Money Transfers Sent (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 8.5: Total Number of International Mobile Money Transfers Sent (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

8.4 Transaction Value Forecasts

Figure 8.7: Total Value of International Transactions p.a. ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 8.6: Total Value of International Transactions p.a. ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Figure 8.8: Worldwide Remittances p.a. ($bn) 2000 - 2008

Table 8.7: Worldwide Remittances p.a. ($bn) 2000 - 2008

8.5 International Transaction Value per User Forecasts

Figure 8.9: International Transaction Value per User p.a. ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014 118

Table 8.8: International Transaction Value per User p.a. ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014

8.6 Service Provider Revenue Opportunity Forecast

Figure 8.10: Service Provider International Mobile Money Transfer Revenue Forecast ($m) 2009 - 2014

Table 8.9: Service Provider International Mobile Money Transfer Revenue Forecast ($m) 2009 - 2014

9. Mobile Payments Standards & Forums

9.1 Introduction

9.1.1 Who is Doing What?

Table 9.1: Overview of Selected Forum Activity

9.2 CGAP

9.3 ETSI

9.3.1 Members

9.4 The GSM Association

9.4.1 Mobile Money Activities

Figure 9.1: GSMA Mobile Money Activities

9.4.2 Members

9.5 International Organisation for Standards (ISO)

9.5.1Members

9.6 Mobey Forum

9.6.1Members

9.7 Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)

9.7.1 Members

9.8 European Payments Council

9.9 The World Bank

9.10 Gates Foundation

9.11 Further Organisations
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