Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Information Gatekeepers Inc
Published: July 2009
Product Code: R403-109Description This report reviews the techniques for NGN planning and some of the drivers in today’s market for that planning activity. It includes the following major areas:
- The general forecast for the U.S. economy and particularly the U.S. telcos.
- Forecasts of CapEx for the next five years.
- A survey of what major players are doing in NGN planning.
- Interviews with some of the top thinkers in the telecommunications business today about NGN.
- The changing face of the network - why it is changing and how.
- A discussion of what the major carriers are doing in related areas.
- Our characterization of the NGN - access, speed, and flexibility.
- Our forecast for the next-generation network architecture - access, transport, and control.
- A presentation of architectural options facing a telecommunications company it the advanced access area, and a model of the related economics.
- A discussion of standards activity related to NGN.
- A description of the major technology groups in the NGN, with forecasts for their deployment.
- A listing of major vendors of NGN hardware and software.
Why have an NGN? — Why change networks?
- If we have a perfectly good, working network, why do we change it? Why do we evolve it?
Here are some reasons:
- We find a way to make it cheaper to operate. (e.g., changing from open wire to plastic sheathed cables).
- We find a way to make it cheaper to grow. (e.g., we add cross-boxes).
- We find that we need more capacity. (e.g., we convert from cable-derived circuits to T-1-derived circuits).
The end-user devices (station apparatus) demands that we provide more or different functionality. (e.g., HDTV delivery).
Of course, particularly with items 1, 2, and 3, there is often a mixture of motives for change. Often the need for more, cheaper capacity will combine items 2 and 3, for example. Over time, the importance of these reasons has changed.
As a part of this report, we will find that now the reason for changing networks is to meet end user-demand for services. The rationale for changing networks is moving from technology/cost savings to customer-driven!
Customer is King!
In most businesses, this would not be such a radical statement, but in the networking business, it is! The discussion above notes that station apparatus is driving network change. It really means that the end customers will buy station apparatus that reflects their needs, and that the network providers will strive to meet those needs. The history of the networking business, as noted before, is that network evolution steps were determined monolithically, and so were end-user capabilities. Now there are hundreds, maybe thousands, of companies devoted to the development of station apparatus to meet customers’ needs as they see them. Network evolution is driven by the competitive desire of the multiple network providers to have networks that are capable of interfacing with this station apparatus.
This idea, that the customer is king, runs through all of our interviews with industry leaders later in this report. Particularly, see Didier Lombard, CEO and chairman, France Telecom Group, who proclaims, “The customer is at the heart of our approach to innovation.”
This is part of a major series of reports being published by Information Gatekeepers on the subject of telco business transformations and the next-generation network. Many of the world’s telcos are now involved in redefining the way they do business, and the kind of network they need in their planned new environment. This series of reports will be a “how to” manual as well as a report on activities by the various major players, and forecasts for the resulting next-generation network.
Table of Contents - Table of Contents
- Table of Figures
- The Lightwave Network Series of Reports
- The Lightwave Network
- The Lightwave Series of Reports
- General Reports on the Network
- General Market Reports
- Specific Systems Reports
- Introduction
- The Impact of Competitive Networks
- Transformation Planning
- Why Do We Change Networks?
- Customer is King!
- This Report
- US Telecommunications Economic Forecast
- General Economic Background
- Telecom Economic Background
- Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009
- Telecommunications Capital Forecast
- Telecommunications Economic Forecasts Summary
- Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
- Survey of Next Generation Network Activities by Major Players
- AT&T
- BT (British Telecom) - “21CN’
- Comcast
- NTT (Japan)
- Orange/FT (French Telecom)
- Telstra (Australian)
- Verizon
- Qwest
- Ciena
- NeoPhotonics
- Changing Face of the Network
- Why Change Networks?
- Cheaper Operation:
- Cheaper to Grow
- Need for More Capacity:
- End-User Demand.
- How the Network Is Changing
- Historical Network
- Recent Network
- Future Network
- “Watson, Come Here - I Need your Cell Number!”
- The Next Generation Network
- NGN - Characterization
- Access
- Speed
- Flexibility
- NGN - Architecture
- NGN - Access
- NGN - Transport
- Local
- Soft switches
- MSPP
- Metro DWDM
- R-OADMs
- IXC
- R-OADMs
- OC-768 and SONET Advances
- IP
- “Big Iron”
- NGN - Control
- New Competitors vs. Super Competitors View of Control
- Control Forecast - A Compromise
- 1. Direct Control
- 2. Common Control and the Intelligent Network
- 3. NGN Control
- Summary of NGN Forecast
- Economic Analysis for Various NGN Advanced Access Architectures
- Comparison of Three Major Approaches
- BellSouth's Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)
- AT&T's Fiber to the node (FTTN)
- Verizon’s FTTP (Fiber to the Premise)
- Summary of Fiber Requirements
- An Economic Model NGN - AAA Architectural Differences
- Fiber Required for Each Architecture
- Cost of Fiber Needed for Each Architecture
- AT&T’s New Plans for BellSouth - A Hybrid FTTC/FTTN
- The Technologies of the Next Generation Network
- Advanced Access Architectures
- Verizon
- AT&T
- Bell South
- Qwest
- NGPONs - Advanced Options - 10-GPON and WDM-PON
- 10-GPON
- WDM-PONs
- Vendors of WDM-PON
- Other WDM-PON Activities
- Vendors of WDM - Listing and Summary of Status
- ROADMs
- Achieving SONET-like Control in Optical Networks
- A New ROADM
- Evolution to the Edge
- NGN Standards Activities
- ITU
- IEFT
- Comparison of ITU and IEFT NGN Views
- Forecast for NGN Technologies
- Advanced Access Architectures Forecast
- Forecasts for Deployment
- AT&T
- Verizon
- BellSouth
- AAA Forecast Summary
- AT&T
- Verizon
- BellSouth
- Qwest
- Forecast Size of Deployments
- Forecast of Homes Passed
- Penetration Rates
- Growth of AAA and Reduction in xDSL
- ROADM Forecast
- Model for Forecast Core and Metro ROADMs
- Assumptions of Model
- Model for Forecast — Edge ROADMs
- Systems — Forecast
- US Edge ROADMs
- US Market Forecast
- Vendors for the NGN
- Advanced Access Architecture Vendors
- Acterna (acquired by JDSU)
- ADC
- Adtran
- Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Alloptic Inc
- Amino Technologies plc
- Avanex Corporation (now Oclaro)
- Broadlight
- Calix
- Cisco
- Conexant
- Corrigent (now Orckit)
- Entrisphere Inc. (Acquired by Ericsson)
- Ericsson
- Fiberxon (Now Source Photonics combined with Luminent)
- Finisar Corporation
- FlexLight Networks (Defunct)
- Fujitsu
- Genone3 Technologies Inc.
- Hitachi Communication Technologies Ltd.
- Humax USA Inc.
- JDS Uniphase
- Kreatel Communications AB (Acquired by Motorola)
- LG Electronics
- LightComm Technology
- Marconi
- Microsoft
- Motorola
- NeoPhotonics
- Nortel
- Novera Optics (owned by Nortel / LG JV)
- OFS
- O-Net Communications Ltd
- Oplink Communications, Inc.
- Optiviva Inc.
- Optical Solutions (Acquired by Calix)
- Osaki Electric Co. Ltd.
- Paceon (Mitsubishi)
- Passavé (Acquired by PMC-Sierra)
- PMC-Sierra
- Quantum Bridge Communications (Acquired by Motorola)
- Salira Optical Network Systems
- Scientific-Atlanta (Cisco)
- Siemens
- Source Photonics (Combined with Fiberxon and Luminent)
- Tandberg Ltd. (Ericsson)
- Tellabs
- Terawave (Acquired by Occam Networks)
- Tut Systems (Acquired by Motorola)
- Vinci Systems, Inc. (Acquired by Tellabs)
- Wave7 Optics
- Worldwide Packets, Inc. (Acquired by Ciena)
- Zhone Technologies
- ROADM System Vendors
- System Vendor Listing
- Adva Optical Networking
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Ciena
- Cisco
- ECI
- Ericsson
- Fujitsu
- Infinera
- Huawei Technologies
- Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) — Meriton (now Xtera)
- Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)
- Meriton Networks (now Xtera)
- Movaz Networks (ADVA)
- NEC America Inc.
- Nistica
- Nokia Siemens (NSN)
- Nortel
- OpVista Inc.
- Tellabs
- Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)
- Figure 1, Lightwave Network
- Figure 2, Telecommunication Capital Expenditures Actual and Forecast
- Figure 3, Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
- Figure 4, Historical Network
- Figure 5, Recent Network
- Figure 6, Near Future Network
- Figure 7, NGN - Characterization
- Figure 8, Next Generation Network
- Figure 9, Transformation from Opaque to Transparent
- Figure 10, Control Migration to Network Edge
- Figure 11, BellSouth FTTC
- Figure 12, AT&T Uverse (FTTN)
- Figure 13, Verizon FiOS (FTTP)
- Figure 14, Fibers Required per Year for Each Architecture
- Figure 15, Amount of Fibers for the Architectures
- Figure 16, Length of Fiber for the Architectures
- Figure 17, Fiber Costs of the Three Architectures
- Figure 18, Fiber Cost per customer - Each Architecture
- Figure 19, AT&T - BellSouth Hybrid FTTC
- Figure 20, Fiber Required Upgrading to Hybrid FTTC
- Figure 21, Identified Technologies of the NGN
- Figure 22, ROADMs to the Network Edge
- Figure 23, Differences between ITU and IEFT NGN Views
- Figure 24: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative — All Technologies
- Figure 25: Forecast Homes Passed Annually — By Company — All
- Technologies
- Figure 26: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
- Figure 27, AAA Growth vs. Legacy XDSL
- Figure 28: ROADM System Unit Forecast — US
- Figure 29: US Market — Change in Predominant Type of ROADM
- over Time
- Figure 30: US Edge ROADMs Systems
- Figure 31: ROADMs Market Forecast — US
- Figure 32: OADM vs. ROADM Market — US
|
|
