Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: ARCchart
Published: May 2008
Product Code: R462-34Description Mobile TV technologies have multiplied rather than consolidated, and despite an early lead by DVB-H, in what seemed a two horse race with Korea’s T-DMB, there are now at least 15 separate Mobile TV technologies that operators can bring to bear, with a variety of business models. Despite this, Japan has now shipped more than 20 million 1 seg ISDB-T mobile handsets, and Korea has 8 million T-DMB devices, many of which are not handsets. Chip suppliers and device makers are flocking to free-to-air services, which are driving the transition to Mobile TV, but it does not guarantee any improved ARPU for cellular operators. Many Western operators such as Verizon and AT&T are now looking at Mobile TV purely as a threat to be countered rather than a service to be offered. But the cellular operators will not be able to hold the tide back forever. Broadcasters need Mobile TV and the potential future advertising revenues that it promises, which is why technology suppliers have targeted the free-to-air model across the world.
Mobile TV is coming whether cellular operators like it or not. It has already begun to scale in some parts of the world, and inevitably is beginning to be understood better by consumers. This report forecasts that 295 million specialist handset devices - that can receive one or other format of Mobile TV - will be sold by 2012. A further 61 million non-handset devices will be added, making total shipments of 356 million devices which can view Mobile TV.
A key finding of this report is that handset transition will drive the emergence of Mobile TV services, and this will be much faster in markets where a free-to-air Mobile TV service is available. This mass adoption has already happened in Japan and Korea, and is likely to be repeated shortly in Brazil and China. In Italy, by contrast, we can draw examples of a typically European route to market, where 3 Italia still dominates.
In terms of technology, we expect to see DVB-SH become established in some key satellite markets and, when combined with DVB-H as a pair of related technologies, it will account for 42% of total specialist handsets during the forecast period. We also predict a strong showing of specialized 1 seg Mobile TV handsets in Japan, plus the emergence of ISDB-T in South America and significant localised market share for several of the other main Mobile TV technologies.
Topics of coverage include:
- The three main types of technology that are being used to provide Mobile TV services
- The pros and cons of the major technology variants
- The Mobile TV standards being adopted by significant national markets such as China, the US, the major EU nations, and Japan as well as the emerging economies such as Brazil and India
- The main pricing models that are available for Mobile TV services including, free-to-air, Pay TV and hybrid models
- The approaches to mobile advertising being followed by current Mobile TV services
- The sourcing of content and packaging of channels in current live Mobile TV services and the many trials being conducted around the world
- The demographics of Pay TV and the relationship with future Mobile TV markets
- Forecasts for technology adoption (ISDB-T, DVB-H and DVB-SH, ATSC M/H, T-DMB, MediaFLO and STiMi) in significant regional and national markets from 2008-12
- Forecasts for Mobile TV handset sales in significant regional and national markets from 2008-12
- Forecasts for non-handset Mobile TV devices from 2008-12
Table of Contents - A. INTRODUCTION
- A.1 The evolution of mobile broadband
- A.2 Is LTE a 4G technology?
- A.3 Specifying LTE
- ITU efforts to formalise 4G
- LTE/SAE trial initiative
- B. TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW
- B.1 OFDM
- B.2 Advanced antenna systems
- MIMO
- SDMA or virtual MIMO
- Beamforming
- iBurst
- B.3 System Architecture Evolution
- B.4 Rollout problems
- Backhaul issues
- B.5 Competing technologies to LTE
- UMB
- WiMAX
- B.6 Standardization of LTE
- NGMN initiative
- B.7 IPR issues
- Qualcomm IPR position
- C. BANDWIDTH UTILISATION
- C.1 TDD & FDD
- C.2 Capacity requirements
- C.3 Candidate bands
- C.4 The need for harmonised spectrum
- C.5 New bands needed
- C.6 Spectrum neutrality
- D. THE BUSINESS CASE FOR LTE
- D.1 Introduction
- D.2 Why Upgrade To LTE?
- D.3 LTE Benefits
- D.4 LTE Negatives
- D.5 New Applications
- Product Classes
- D.6 LTE home femtocells
- D.7 Lower Costs
- D.8 Benefits of all-IP infrastructure
- D.9 HSPA as an alternative to LTE
- Vendor support for HSPA+
- HSPA+ performance compared to LTE
- Timing issues
- HSPA+ Compared To WiMAX
- D.10 Fixed Wireless Terminals
- D.11 Handset Costs
- E. FORECAST SUBSCRIBER UPTAKE
- F. OPERATOR STRATEGIES
- F.1 Invest in forwards-compatible infrastructure
- F.2 Invest in HSPA+ in parallel to LTE
- F.3 Skip HSPA+ and go straight to LTE
- F.4 Roll out datacards in the first instance
- F.5 Deploy in densely populated areas
- F.6 Lobby for extra spectrum
- F.7 Ensure handset diversity before launch
- F.8 Deploy WiMAX in developing markets
- G. VENDOR STRATEGIES
- G.1 Pool R&D resources
- G.2 CDMA vendors must develop multimode chipsets
- G.3 GSM vendors use HSPA+ to counter threat Of WiMAX
- G.4 Ensure IPR environment is transparent
- G.5 Skip HSPA+
- H. COMPANY PROFILES
- H.1 Vodafone
- Background
- Strategy
- Reducing costs
- Backhaul
- Spectrum strategy
- Mobile broadband roadmap
- WiMAX: A political pawn!
- H.2 T-Mobile
- Background
- Strategy
- WAN upgrade
- H.3 Orange
- Background
- Strategy
- Orange and WiMAX
- Orange quad play strategy
- H.4 NTT DoCoMo
- Background
- Strategy
- Super 3G handset advances
- H.5 Verizon
- Background
- Strategy
- I. GLOSSARY
- List of Figures
- Figure A-1: Mobile network generations & deployment timeframe
- Figure A-2: IMT Advanced VAN Diagram
- Figure B-1: Flat architecture of LTE & SAE
- Figure B-2: High-Level NGMN architecture
- Figure C-1: Relative spectral capacity per technology
- Figure C-2: Next generation services relative to bandwidth
- Figure D-1: Femtocell
- Figure D-2: Decoupling of revenues from traffic
- Figure D-3: Number of commercial HSPA networks per peak download speeds
- Figure D-4: Examples of terminals that could use LTE
- Figure E-1: Global LTE subscribers
- Figure E-2: Regional breakdown of LTE subscribers
- Figure H-1: Vodafone roadmap
- Figure H-2: NTT DoCoMo roadmap to 4G
- List of Tables
- Table A-1: Comparisons of key evolutionary technologies
- Table B-1: 3G LTE specification overview
- Table C-1: FDD & TDD frequency bands defined in 3GPP (June 2007)
- Table D-1: LTE critical success factors
- Table D-2: Service classes for business requirements
- Table D-3: NGMN cost efficiency criteria
- Table D-4: HSPA comparison to LTE
- Table E-1: LTE deployment timeframes
- Table H-1: Vodafone data revenues as a percentage of service revenues, 4Q06-4Q
- Table H-2: Vodafone current spectrum holdings
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