Flash Memory and Other Removable Data Storage - US

Just a few years ago, flash memory products arrived explosively on the scene as the next essential memory product. But for the moment, the market has stopped sizzling. In this report, Mintel takes a comprehensive look at the flash media market and explores the dynamics that have caused the market to turn sour. Mintel offers a review of major flash innovators and their latest breakthroughs and product introductions. Analysis and insights offered include:

• Which new flash products show the greatest potential?
• Which manufacturers are on the forefront of flash technology?
• Which retail channels are most essential to the flash market?
• What are forecasted sales for flash media, and blank shiny discs?

• Who are the most likely users of flash devices?
• What activities do consumers use flash for?
• Which devices are the strongest drivers for flash memory cards?
• Who adopts the newest memory storage technologies first?
• Do consumers really care about data backup?
• Who buys flash online?
• Do consumers pay attention to flash product branding?

• USB Drives
• CompactFlash Cards
• Memory Sticks
• MultiMedia Cards
• Secure Digital Cards
• SmartMedia Cards

This report also discusses the host technology for the removable media, such as digital cameras, PDAs, and other devices. However, these devices are not included in market size data or forecast estimates.

Coverage of other media formats, such as DVD, CD and external hard drive technology is included in this report where relevant, but those formats are not the focus of this report.

Scope and Themes

What you need to know

Definition

Abbreviations and terms

Abbreviations

Terms

Executive Summary

Highlights

Flash memory explodes onto scene but is not yet disruptive

Demand for flash driven by tech devices and need for data porting

Oversupply exacerbates quarterly price drops

Limited efforts at branding show limited success

Consumer electronic stores are the primary destination for flash

Household income is the strongest determinant of flash ownership and usage

Asians and higher-income Hispanics are the early adopters

Increased demand ahead

Forecast

Market Drivers

Introduction

Digital cameras and cell phones drive the need for flash storage

Figure 1: Usage of removable memory with tech devices, February 2007

Figure 2: SanDisk flash memory product revenues, by type, 2003-06

Figure 3: Chart: U.S. factory sales for selected host devices, 2002-07

Household income

Figure 4: Distribution of households, by income, 1999 and 2005

Figure 5: Change in number of households per income bracket, 1999-2005

Flash for professional use

Figure 6: Reasons to use removable data storage, by type of storage used, February 2007

Figure 7: Ownership of data storage hardware, by work habit, February 2007

Asians and higher-income Hispanics are early adopters

Figure 8: Growth of the U.S. population, by race/ethnicity, 2002, 2007 & 2012

Internet-based storage

Portable hard drives

Market Size and Trends

Figure 9: Total U.S. factory sales of flash media and other blank computer media, at current and constant prices, 2002-06

Rapid price deflation leaves lower capacities in the dust

Figure 10: Average card capacity and price per MB sold by SanDisk, 2004-06

Global oversupply adds to price destabilization

Market Segmentation

Figure 11: U.S. factory sales of flash media and other blank computer media, segmented by type, 2004 & 2006

Figure 12: Chart: Indexed factory sales of flash media and other blank computer media, by segment, 2002-06

Figure 13: Examples of price per gigabyte of data stored, by media type, March 2007

Flash media

Figure 14: Sales of flash media, at current and constant prices, 2002-06

Other blank computer media

Overview

Figure 15: Sales of other blank computer media, at current and constant prices, 2002-06

CDs vs. DVDs

Figure 16: FDM sales and volume for blank CDs and DVDs, 2002-06

Figure 17: Chart: FDM sales of blank CDs and DVDs, 2002-06

Supply Structure

Overview

Figure 18: Ownership of flash card/USB drive brands, by gender, February 2007

Figure 19: Ownership of flash card/USB drive brands, by gender, February 2007

Figure 20: Ownership of flash card/USB drive brands, by age, February 2007

Figure 21: Ownership of flash card/USB drive brands, by household income, February 2007

Figure 22: Top ten brands in memory cards and dvd media, Jan-Oct 2006*

Manufacturer profiles

SanDisk

Samsung Electronics

Figure 23: Advancements in NAND process technology by Samsung, 2005-07

Toshiba

Sony

Micron/Lexar

Intel

Memory card manufacturers

Advertising and Promotion

Introduction

Brand-specific marketing

Growing the market

SanDisk

Jump drive fashion

Manufacturer rebates

Retailer advertising

Retail Distribution

Overview

Figure 24: Method of purchase of flash memory, USB flash and blank CD/DVDs, February 2007

Figure 25: Method of purchase of flash memory cards, by race/ethnicity, February 2007

Figure 26: Digital camera channel shipments, June 2006

Online retailers

The Consumer

Introduction

Summary

Ownership of data storage hardware

Figure 27: Ownership of data storage hardware, Jan-Oct 2006

Figure 28: Ownership of selected data storage hardware, May 2005 & February 2007

Figure 29: Ownership of selected data storage hardware, by age, Jan-Oct 2006

Figure 30: Chart: Ownership of selected data storage hardware, by age, Jan-Oct 2006

Figure 31: Ownership of selected data storage hardware, by household income, Jan-Oct 2006

Figure 32: Ownership of selected data storage hardware, by presence of children in the household,

Figure 33: Ownership of selected data storage hardware, by cohort, Jan-Oct 2006

Usage of data storage hardware

Figure 34: Usage of selected data storage hardware, February 2007

Figure 35: Ownership of selected data storage hardware, by gender, February 2007

Figure 36: Ownership of selected data storage hardware, by age, February 2007

Figure 37: Usage of selected data storage hardware, by presence of children in the household, February 2007

Intent to purchase data storage hardware

Figure 38: Intent to purchase selected data storage hardware, by gender, February 2007

Figure 39: Intent to purchase selected data storage hardware, by gender, February 2007

Figure 40: Intent to purchase selected data storage hardware, by age, February 2007

Figure 41: Chart: Intent to purchase selected data storage hardware, by age, February 2007

Figure 42: Intent to purchase selected data storage hardware, by presence of children in the household, February 2007

Reasons to use removable data storage

Figure 43: Reasons to use removable data storage I, by type of storage, February 2007

Figure 44: Reasons to use removable data storage II, by type of storage, February 2007

Attitudes toward data storage

Figure 45: Attitudes toward data storage, by age, February 2007

Figure 46: Chart: Attitudes toward data back up, by age, February 2007

Figure 47: Attitudes toward data storage, by household income, February 2007

Figure 48: Attitudes toward data storage, by household income, February 2007

Figure 49: Uncertainty about data storage, by age, February 2007

Attitudes toward flash memory

Figure 50: Attitudes toward flash memory, February 2007

Figure 51: Attitudes toward flash memory, by gender, February 2007

Figure 52: Attitudes toward flash memory, by gender, February 2007

Figure 53: Attitudes toward flash memory, by age, February 2007

Figure 54: Attitudes toward flash memory, by household income, February 2007

Figure 55: Chart: Attitudes toward flash memory, by household income, February 2007

Attitudes toward next generation shiny disc storage

Figure 56: Attitudes toward next generation DVD storage, by gender, February 2007

Figure 57: Attitudes toward next generation DVD storage, by age, February 2007

Race/ethnicity

Figure 58: Ownership of selected data storage hardware, by race/ethnicity, Jan-Oct 2006

Figure 59: Usage of selected data storage hardware, by race/ethnicity, Jan-Oct 2006

Figure 60: Intent to purchase selected data storage hardware, by race/ethnicity, February 2007

Figure 61: Attitudes toward data storage, by race/ethnicity, February 2007

Figure 62: Attitudes toward flash memory, by race/ethnicity, February 2007

Figure 63: Attitudes toward next generation DVD storage, by race/ethnicity, February 2007

Controlling for age and income

Figure 64: Usage of selected data storage hardware, by race/ethnicity and age, Jan-Oct 2006

Figure 65: Usage of selected data storage hardware, by race/ethnicity and household income, Jan-Oct 2006

Future and Forecast

Future trends

Increased OEM demand ahead

USB drives as a playback format

SSD spurs new category of demand

Windows Vista to spur sales

Multiple formats likely to continue

PRAM technology to challenge flash

OEM sales to reduce costs to consumers

Cell phones, MP3 players, laptops to drive sales

Figure 66: Chart: Estimates of shipments of products resulting in flash sales, 2002-07

Free Internet storage as a potential negative driver

Market forecast

Flash media and other blank computer media

Figure 67: U.S. sales of flash media and other blank computer media, at current and constant prices, 2006-10

Figure 68: Chart: Forecast of flash media and other blank computer media, at current and constant prices, 2006-10

Flash media

Figure 69: Forecast of U.S. sales of flash media, at current and constant prices, 2006-10

Other blank computer media

Figure 70: U.S. sales of other blank computer media, at current and constant prices, 2006-10

Appendix: Trade Associations

Appendix: Simmons cohorts

Figure 71: Married couples cohorts

Figure 72: Single women cohorts

Figure 73: Single men cohorts