Nuts and Dried Fruit - US

There’s no doubt that the economic recession has altered consumer shopping behavior, but the data yield surprising results at times. Take the cheese category for example.

According to Mintel’s Cheese—U.S., May 2009 report, the cheese category has experienced solid growth in the last several years (15% from 2006-08), and like most categories, the most logical transition for cash-strapped consumers looking to continue to eat cheese is to switch from more expensive natural cheeses to processed cheese products. Think American cheese, think Velveeta.

SCOPE AND THEMES

What you need to know

Definition

Data sources

Sales data

Consumer survey data

Advertising clips

Abbreviations and terms

Abbreviations

Terms

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The market at a glance

Competitive context

Segment performance

Snack nuts and seeds

Dried fruit

Baking nuts

Trail mix

Retail channels

Leading companies

Weight issues highlight need for healthier alternatives

Innovation and innovators

Different advertising approaches needed for women and men

Household consumption

The nut consumer

The dried fruit consumer

The trail mix consumer

Respondent attitudes point to a need for increased education

Impact of race and Hispanic origin

MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST

Key points

A competitive market for healthy snacks

Sales and forecast of nuts and dried fruit

Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2004-14

Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of nuts and dried fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14

Walmart sales

COMPETITIVE CONTEXT

Key points

Unemployment and fears of job loss lead consumers to tighten food budgets

Figure 3: Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, 16 years and older, by month, 2000-09

Nuts and dried fruit compete in a much larger snack universe

Figure 4: Foods eaten as snacks and as healthy snacks, February 2009

Trail mix bars—help or hurt?

“Nature’s candy” is losing luster with consumers

Figure 5: U.S. per capita consumption of selected dried fruit, by type, 1997/98-2007/08

SEGMENT PERFORMANCE

Key points

Exponential growth from 2004-08 is expected to slow through 2011

Sales of nuts and dried fruit in FDMx

Figure 6: FDMx sales of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2004-14

Figure 7: FDMx sales of nuts and dried fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14

Shifts in segment share point to the growing appeal of trail mix

Sales of nuts and dried fruit, by segment

Figure 8: FDMx sales of nuts and dried fruit, by type, 2007 and 2009

SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—SNACK NUTS AND SEEDS

Key points

Sales aren’t dampened significantly even amidst safety concerns

Snack nuts are taking on new shapes and flavors

Sales and forecast of snack nuts and seeds

Figure 9: FDMx sales of snack nuts and seeds, 2004-14

SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—DRIED FRUIT

Key points

Superfruits attract attention to the segment

Exit prunes, welcome plums

“Other” covers a wide range of products

Sales and forecast of dried fruit

Figure 10: FDMx sales and forecast of dried fruit, at current prices, 2004-14

Sales of dried fruit by type

Figure 11: FDMx sales of dried fruit, by type, 2008 and 2009

SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—BAKING NUTS

Key points

Baking nuts are a natural, especially for women

Sales driven by seasonal fluctuations

Pecans, pistachios, and hazelnuts appearing on menus more often

Figure 12: Top ten nut types incorporated in restaurant menu dishes, by quarter, 2008-09

Sales and forecast of baking nuts

Figure 13: FDMx sales and forecast of baking nuts, at current prices, 2004-14

SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—TRAIL MIX

Key points

Exotic mixes give new life to the segment

Sales and forecast of trail mix

Figure 14: FDMx sales and forecast of trail mix, at current prices, 2004-14

RETAIL CHANNELS

Key points

Supermarkets lead in nuts and dried fruit sales

Sales of nuts and dried fruit, by channel

Figure 15: Total U.S. FDMx sales of nuts and dried fruit, by channel, 2008 and 2009

RETAIL CHANNELS—SUPERMARKETS

Key points

Supermarket merchandising tactics increase visibility but there’s work to be done

Supermarket/food stores’ sales of nuts and dried fruit

Figure 16: Supermarket/food stores’ sales of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2004-08

RETAIL CHANNELS—DRUG AND OTHER

Key points

Outlets are capitalizing with trendy snacks and improving their image

Drug and other stores’ sales of nuts and dried fruit

Figure 17: Drug and other stores’ sales of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2004-08

RETAIL CHANNELS—NATURAL FOODS SUPERMARKETS

Key points

Natural stores benefit from greater emphasis on healthy eating

Natural stores will have to offer competitive prices

Figure 18: Natural product supermarket retail sales of nuts, dried fruit, seeds and trail mix, at current prices,

2007-09

Figure 19: Natural product supermarket retail sales of nuts, dried fruit, seeds and trail mix, at inflation-adjusted

prices, 2007-09

Seeds post strongest sales growth from 2007-09

Figure 20: Natural product supermarket retail sales of nuts, dried fruit, seeds and trail mix, by segment, 2007

and 2009

Highly splintered supplier base for natural supermarkets

Other natural suppliers of interest

Figure 21: Natural product supermarket retail sales of nuts, dried fruit, seeds and trail mix, by manufacturer,

2007 and 2009

Organics boost dried fruit, but consumers go for conventional in other segments

Figure 22: Natural product supermarket retail sales of nuts, dried fruit, seeds and trail mix, by organic status,

2007 and 2009

MARKET DRIVERS

Weight issues highlight need for healthier alternatives

Figure 23: Percentage of Americans aged 20 or older who are overweight, obese, or extremely obese, 1988-

2006

Childhood obesity is an ongoing concern

Figure 24: Prevalence of overweight among children and adolescents aged 2-19, for selected years 1976-80

through 2003-06

Boomer food

Figure 25: Population aged 18 or older, by age, 2009 and 2014

Per capita consumption of nuts up, dried fruit down

Figure 26: U.S. per capita consumption selected shelled tree nuts and peanuts, by type, 1997/8-2007/8

LEADING COMPANIES

Key points

Private label putting a squeeze on national brands

Figure 27: Private label sales of nuts and dried fruit in FDMx, 2004-08

Kraft experiences mixed results for an overall decline

Diamond Foods benefits from strong brand loyalty and improved distribution

Many competitors, few national leaders

FDMx sales of nuts and dried fruit by manufacturer

Figure 28: Manufacturer FDMx sales of nuts and dried fruit in the U.S., 2008 and 2009

BRAND SHARE—SNACK NUTS AND SEEDS

Key points

Kraft expands its natural offerings

Wonderful Pistachios “better for you” and “better for earth”

Blue Diamond’s innovative packaging helps consumers count calories

Manufacturer and brand sales of nuts and seeds

Figure 29: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of nuts and seeds, 2008 and 2009

BRAND SHARE—DRIED FRUIT

Key points

Superfruits take center stage

Manufacturer and brand sales of dried fruit

Figure 30: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of dried fruit, 2008 and 2009

BRAND SHARE—BAKING NUTS

Key points

Diamond sets the bar for culinary nuts

Private label sales growing rapidly

Strong performance by Back to Nature not enough to temper Kraft declines

Manufacturer and brand sales of baking nuts

Figure 31: Selected FDMx brand sales of baking nuts, 2008 and 2009

BRAND SHARE—TRAIL MIX

Key point

Kraft launches more natural products

Candy-based mixes experience declines

Manufacturer and brand sales of trail mix

Figure 32: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of trail mix, 2008 and 2009

BRAND QUALITIES

Diamond of California

Emerald Nuts

Planters

Blue Diamond

Sunsweet

INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS

Key points

Portion control necessary for a category that is new to some

Raisins ahead of the curve on portion control

Nut crisps offer a non-traditional way to consume nuts

Dried fruit gets crunchy too

A premium treat with benefits

Figure 33: Nut and dried fruit new product introductions, 2003-08

Figure 34: Top new product positioning claims for nuts, 2003-08

Figure 35: Top new product positioning claims for dried fruit, 2003-08

ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION

Different approaches to healthy eating needed for women and men

Figure 36: Behaviors and opinions towards healthy snacking, by gender, July 2007-September 2008

Planters speaks to men

Figure 37: Planters cashew girl television ad, 2008

Figure 38: Planters sea salt peanuts television ad, 2009

Emerald Nuts uses humor

Figure 39: Emerald Nuts Skydiver television ad, 2009

Diamond Foods

Blue Diamond promotes a healthy lifestyle

Figure 40: Blue Diamond Roasted Almonds TV ad, 2008

True North promotes the greater good

Sunsweet Ones (Sunsweet Growers) aren’t your grandparents’ prunes

Figure 41: Sunsweet Ones TV ad, 2009

Ocean Spray Craisins appeal to moms

Figure 42: Ocean Spray Craisins 100-calorie packs TV ad, 2008

California Raisin Marketing Board gets zenned out in recent campaign

Figure 43: California Raisin Marketing Board TV ad, 2009

HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION OF NUTS

Key points

Stark differences in household penetration of nuts by household income

Figure 44: Incidence of household consumption of nuts, by household income, October 2007-December 2008

Figure 45: How nuts are used, by household income, October 2007-December 2008

Figure 46: Trends in kinds of nuts eaten, 2004-08

THE NUT CONSUMER AND THEIR EATING PREFERENCES

Key points

Incidence of nut consumption skews older

Figure 47: Nut consumption among household members, by age, April 2009

How nuts are eaten

Figure 48: How nuts were consumed in last month, by type of nut, April 2009

Figure 49: Incidence of eating selected nuts alone by the handful, by age, April 2009

Figure 50: How nuts are eaten/used, by gender, April 2009

Figure 51: How nuts are eaten/used, by age, April 2009

Figure 52: How nuts are eaten/used, by household income, April 2009

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION OF DRIED FRUIT

Key points

Half of all respondents eat raisins, but vast opportunity exists to grow consumption of other dried

fruits

Figure 53: How dried fruits were consumed in last month, by fruit, April 2009

Figure 54: Consumption habits with dried fruit, by gender, April 2009

Figure 55: Consumption habits with dried fruit, by age, April 2009

Figure 56: Consumption habits with dried fruit, by household income, April 2009

Figure 57: Consumption habits with dried fruit, by presence of children, April 2009

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION OF TRAIL MIX

Key points

Younger consumers know what they like

Figure 58: Consumption habits with trail mix, by age, April 2009

Lower-income respondents less likely to eat trail mix

Figure 59: Consumption habits with trail mix, by household income, April 2009

ATTITUDES TOWARD NUTS AND DRIED FRUIT

Key points

Need for education is apparent across most demographics

Men less likely to be aware of health benefits of nuts

Female respondents more likely to see too many calories and too much sugar

Figure 60: Attitudes towards healthfulness of nuts and dried fruit, by gender, April 2009

Beneficial antioxidants in nuts aren’t registering with younger and less affluent consumers

Figure 61: Attitudes towards healthfulness of nuts and dried fruit, by age, April 2009

Figure 62: Attitudes towards healthfulness of nuts and dried fruit, by household income, April 2009

IMPACT OF RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN

Key points

Hispanic households are under-indexing in nut consumption

Figure 63: Incidence of household consumption of nuts, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2007-December 2008 . 84

Kinds, flavors, types of nuts eaten

Figure 64: Kinds of nuts eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2007-December 2008

Figure 65: Flavors of nuts eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2007-December 2008

Figure 66: How nuts are used, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2007-December 2008

Reasons to eat nuts

Figure 67: Consumption habits with nuts, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009

Who eats nuts?

Figure 68: Nut consumption among household members, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009

Figure 69: Consumption habits with trail mix, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009

Figure 70: Attitudes towards healthfulness of nuts and dried fruit, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009

Figure 71: Consumption habits with dried fruit, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009

APPENDIX: OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES

Figure 72: Consumption habits: almonds, by household income, April 2009

Figure 73: Consumption habits: cashews, by household income, April 2009

Figure 74: Consumption habits: peanuts, by household income, April 2009

Figure 75: Consumption habits: pecans, by household income, April 2009

Figure 76: Brands of nuts eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2007-December 2008

APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS