Apple's Play for the Living Room 'On the Future of Apple TV® and the iTunes® Movie Downlaod Service'

1.0 Introduction

1.1 Understanding the Online Digital Video Landscape

1.2 Important Distinctions between the Digital Video and Music Markets

2.0 Profiling the iTunes Movie Service

2.1 Apple in the Living Room

2.2 The iTunes Movie Download Service

2.2.1 Overview

2.2.2 The Method and the Means

2.2.3 The Model

2.2.4 Issues and Challenges

2.2.5 The Future

3.0 Consumer Receptivity to a Set-Top-Based iTunes Movie Service

3.1 Background & Methodology

3.2 Interest in iTunes Movie Service with an Apple-Branded Set-Top Box

3.2.1 $200 or Less

3.2.2 $200-$300

3.2.3 $300-$400

3.2.4 More than $400

3.2.5 Interest and Power Ranking Comparison

4.0 Profiling iTunes-to-TV Movie Service Intenders

4.1 CE Ownership

4.1.1 iPods

4.1.2 TVs

4.1.2.1 TVs Owned

4.1.2.2 TV Purchasing Behavior

4.1.3 DVD Players

4.1.4 Game Consoles

4.1.5 DVRs

4.1.6 Home Theaters

4.1.7 Desktop PCs

4.1.8 Laptop PCs

4.2 Use of PayTV Services

4.3 Use of Value-Added TV Services

4.4 DVD Ownership & Purchasing Behavior

4.5 DVD Rental Behavior

4.5.1 Frequency of Rentals

4.5.2 Rental Services Currently Used

4.6 Technology Adopter Status

5.0 Key Demographics of Intenders

5.1 Age

5.2 Annual Household Income

5.3 Number of Children

6.0 Forecasts

6.1 Key Forecast Assumptions

6.1.1 Hardware: Apple is the Market

6.2 Forecasting Broadband Households

6.3 Apple TV Forecasts

6.3.1 Primary Research

6.3.2 Apple TV Forecast

7.0 Reflections and Recommendations

7.1 The Importance of Targeting Apple Loyalists

7.2 But Don’t Look Past the Non-Converted

7.3 Find a New Name!

7.4 Displacing DVDs is Inherently Problematic

List of Figures

Figure 1 The Alternative Universe of On-Demand Video

Figure 2 Total Album Sales by Type - US (2001 - 2005)

Figure 3 Proclivity to Purchase an Apple Movie Player at Less than $200

Figure 4 Proclivity to Purchase an Apple Movie Player at $200 to $300

Figure 5 Proclivity to Purchase an Apple Movie Player at $300 to $400

Figure 6 Proclivity to Purchase an Apple Movie Player at More than $400

Figure 7 Comparison of Purchase Proclivities of Apple Movie Player Across

Price Points

Figure 8 iPod Ownership by Intender Segment

Figure 9 Number of Televisions in the Household by Intender Segment

Figure 10 Number of SD Digital TVs in the Household by Intender Segment

Figure 11 Number of HDTVs per Household by Intender Segment

Figure 12 Number of Analog TVs in the Household by Intender Segment

Figure 13 Date of Most Recent TV Purchase

Figure 14 Intended Date of Next TV Purchase

Figure 15 Intention to Purchase HDTV in the Next Six Months

Figure 16 Number of Stand-Alone DVD Players in the Household by Intender

Segment

Figure 17 Number of Game Consoles in the Household by Intender Segment 34

Figure 18 Number of DVRs in the Household by Intender Segment

Figure 19 Home Theater Ownership by Intender Segment

Figure 20 Number of Desktop PCs in the Household by Intender Segment

Figure 21 Number of Laptop PCs by Intender Segment

Figure 22 Use of PayTV Services

Figure 23 Use of Digital Cable TV Services

Figure 24 Advanced Features/Services Used by Intender Segment

Figure 25 Number of DVDs in the Household by Intender Segment

Figure 26 Number of DVDs Purchased in Last Six Months by Intender Segment

Figure 27 Primary Reason for Purchasing Movies by Intender Segment

Figure 28 Number of Movies Rented Per Month by Intender Segment

Figure 29 Type(s) of Rental Services Used by Intender Segment

Figure 30 Technology Adopter Status by Intender Segment

Figure 31 Age of Respondent by Intender Segment

Figure 32 Annual Household Income by Intender Segment

Figure 33 Number of Children Living in the Home by Intender Segment

Figure 34 U.S. Broadband Households (2001 - 2010)

Figure 35 Evaluating TAM vs. Take Rate for iTunes-to-TV Movie Download

Service

Figure 36 Apple TV Annual Unit Sales - US (2007 - 2011)

Figure 37 Apple TV Cumulative Unit Sales - US (2007 - 2011)

List of Tables

Table 1 iTunes’ Movie Sales Model

Table 2 Average Number of Televisions by Intender Segment

Table 3 Average Number of SD Digital TVs by Intender Segment

Table 4 Average Number of HDTVs by Intender Segment

Table 5 Average Number of Analog TVs by Intender Segment

Table 6 Average Number of DVD Players by Intender Segment

Table 7 Average Number of Game Consoles by Intender Segment

Table 8 Average Number of DVRs by Intender Segment

Table 9 Average Number of Desktop PCs by Intender Segment

Table 10 Average Number of Laptop PCs by Intender Segment

Table 11 Average Number of DVDs Purchased in Last Six Months by Intender

Segment

Table 12 Average Number of Movies Rented Per Month by Intender Segment

Table 13 Average Age of Respondent by Intender Segment

Table 14 iPod Ownership and Interest in iTunes-to-TV Movie Service

Table 15 iTunes Video Usage and Interest in iTunes-to-TV Movie Service

Table 16 Number of iTunes Video Users by Household and Interest in iTunes-to-

TV Movie Service