Annual Wrapup: Intel Microprocessors Service

This report wraps up our coverage of Intel's processors for 2003 and provides a summary and updated information on events in 2003 for the previous sections of the report. The report summarizes the effect of a recovering economy on Intel's products and manufacturing capacities. Looking back at 2003 also provides indicators of Intel's strategies for 2004 and beyond.

This report includes an appendix, Backup Data, with the latest data from the MDR model of Intel's computer processor (CPU) shipments. Although we no longer include revenue forecasts for Intel's microprocessor business, we continue to project ASPs and processor volumes. Updated estimates through 4Q05 are provided for CPU shipments, sorted by processor die and market segments. Estimates for processor ASPs and manufacturing costs are provided through 4Q04, sorted by processor microarchitecture generation and market segment. Data, dating back as far as 1995, is supplied to provide a historical context to Intel's present and future plans. Data is provided on historical pricing on obsolete Intel processors.

Executive Summary

Methodology

Shipment Model

Fab Model

Manufacturing Capacity and Die Cost

Price Estimates

Caveats and Uncertainties

Introduction

Intel’s Processors in 2003

Intel Processor Technology

Tualatin and Tualatin-256

Pentium M (Banias)

Celeron M (Banias-lite

Dothan, Dothan-lite

The Pentium 4 Family

Willamette-128

Northwood

NorthwoodX, NorthwoodX-lite

Gallatin

Prescott, Prescott-lite

Tejas

Tulsa

Merced

McKinley

Madison

Montecito

Technology Trends

Packaging

Power Dissipation

Intel Manufacturing in 2003

Intel Desktop Processors in 2003

Overview

2003 Roadmap Events

Pricing Trends

Intel Server Processors in 2003

Overview

2003 Roadmap Events

Pricing Trends

Intel Mobile Processors in 2003

Overview

Roadmap Events

Pricing Trends

Intel’s x86 Competitors in 2003

AMD

Transmeta

VIA

Appendix: Backup Data

Historical Processor Pricing

Desktop CPU

Mobile CPU

Server CPU

Shipment Data

Units

Average Price and Cost

List of Tables

Table 1. A brief summary of current and future Intel processors. Market segments: DP=desktop performance, DV=desktop value, MP=mobile performance, MV=mobile value, WS=workstation and low-end server, S=server

Table A-1. Intel list pricing for desktop Pentium processors, 1993–1998. Note that Intel did not market desktop Pentium processors before 2Q93 or after 4Q98

Table A-2. Intel list pricing for desktop P6 processors, 1995–mid-1999. Note that Intel did not market P6 processors before 4Q95. *Covington, a Deschutes processor with no L2 cache, was marketed as Celeron

Table A-3. Intel list price for 0.25-micron Pentium III, intro-EOL (end of life) *Marketed as Pentium III-600B

Table A-4. Intel list price for 0.25-micron Celeron, 1Q99–EOL (end of life) *Price took effect at introduction on 4/26/99

Table A-5. Intel list price for 0.18-micron Pentium III, intro–EOL

Table A-6. Intel list price for 0.18-micron P6-based Celeron, intro–EOL

Table A-7. Intel list price for 0.18-micron Pentium 4, intro–EOL

Table A-8. Intel list price for 0.18-micron NetBurst Celeron, intro–EOL

Table A-9. List prices for Coppermine-128–based and Tualatin-256–based desktop Celeron with a 100MHz bus, intro–EOL

Table A-10. Intel list pricing for Mobile Pentium processors, 1995–1Q99. Note that Intel did not market Mobile Pentium processors before 1Q95 or after 1Q99

Table A-11. Intel list prices for Mobile Pentium II, intro-EOL. Prices for BGA version; minicartridges cost $18 more

Table A-12. Intel list price for 0.18-micron Mobile Pentium III Coppermine, intro–EOL

Table A-13. Intel list price for 0.18-micron mobile Celeron, intro–EOL. * at 6/19 intro

Table A-14. Intel list pricing for Pentium Pro server models, 4Q95–4Q98. Intel did not market Pentium Pro processors before 4Q95 or after 4Q98

Table A-15. Intel list price for Xeon processors, 1Q99 to 1Q03

Table A-16. Intel list price for Itanium processors, 1Q99–1Q03

Table A-17. Intel processor shipments by product type, 386 through Pentium, 1Q93–EOL. Note that Intel did not ship Pentium processors after 2Q99. Figures are in thousands of units

Table A-18. Intel processor shipments by product type, P6 family, intro–4Q05. Intel did not ship P6 processors before 4Q95. Cascades includes all large-cache versions. Figures are in thousands of units

Table A-19. Intel processor shipments by product type, P7 family and IA-64 family, intro–4Q05. Willamette, Northwood, Prescott include shrinks and Celeron versions. Gallatin, Nocoma, McKinley, and Madison include all large-cache versions. Figures are in thousands of units

Table A-20. Intel quarterly shipments by processor family, 1Q95–4Q05. Figures are in thousands of units

Table A-21. Intel quarterly shipments by segment, 1Q95–4Q05. Figures in thousands of units

Table A-22. Intel average selling price by processor family, 1Q95–4Q04

Table A-23. Intel average selling price by segment, 1Q95–4Q04

Table A-24. Average per-unit manufacturing cost by processor family, 1Q95–4Q04

Table A-25. Average per-unit manufacturing cost by segment, 1Q95–4Q0

List of Figures

Figure 1. Intel prices always trend downward but can plateau for up to a quarter. Mainstream Pentium 4 processors typically are introduced at $637 and fall rapidly, but Intel introduced the 3.4GHz Prescott at only $417. Intel has held introduction prices of the Pentium 4 Extreme Editions

flat, like their XeonMP processor cousins

Figure 2. AMD’s processor roadmap, revealed at the annual AMD analyst conference November 6, 2003