Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: In-Stat
Published: November 2005
Product Code: R97-2138Description The major Hollywood studios are facing a changing landscape for the consumption of their home video products.
Sony Corporation is “betting the farm” on High Definition TV and HDTV products, including the next-generation Blu-Ray disc format. Sony’s strategy may be strong enough to drive them into a dominating position for the future of digital home entertainment, and the other major Hollywood studios may simply be along for the ride.
Microsoft and Intel are also lobbying strongly to play a part, with their Connected Digital Home solutions. Microsoft and Intel have voiced strong support for HD-DVD.
Nobody can be sure how it is all going to play out.
By 2009, our forecast model predicts a worldwide retail value of
US$ 50 Billion, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 5.4% for annual sales value of Hollywood Video Content sold at retail. The DVD value will hold its own, but much of the growth will be due to:
- Portable Player products
- Next-Generation optical discs
- Movie & TV Downloads
We expect the three alternative delivery formats to gain momentum in 2006, and continue growing through 2009. The coming few years will be very interesting ones for the Hollywood studios.Table of Contents Table
of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Methodology
- Multimedia
Forecasting Experience Since 1991
- Experienced
Team Of Analysts
- Methodology
- Previously
Issued Reports That Provide Useful Information
- The Retail Video
Sales Market
- Hollywood's
Symbiotic Relationship With Consumer Electronics Manufacturers
- The "Network
Effect"-DVD Player Sales Pull Forward DVD Title Sales and
Create Accelerating Growth
- US and
International Hollywood DVD Title Sales Value
- How Movies
Get Released Into Multiple Markets
- Territorial
Rights Are the Rule of Thumb
- Territorial
Release Into Cinemas By Region
- Territorial
Release for PPV or VOD By Region
- Territorial
Release On Tape & DVD By Region
- The
Progressive Release-Cinema to Pay-Per-View To DVD
- Distribution
to Video Rental Stores
- Movie
Rentals Bring In About $10 Billion Worldwide
- Pay-Per-View,
or VOD, Via Satellite or Cable TV
- Pay-Per-View
and VOD Over The Internet to Personal Computers
- DVD
Premier Bypasses the Cinema and Helps Build Franchises
- Multiple
Versions of the Same Movie Are Now the Norm
- Changes
to the Content to Add Interest or Update the Marketing
- Changes
to the Format to Address Personal Viewing Tastes
- Changes
Coming to the Idea of Release Windows
- Day
& Date Release at the Cinema
- Day
& Date Release for DVDs
Mark Cuban's HDNET Challenges "Release Windows"
- Comcast
Ups the Ante to Change Pay-Per-View "Windows"
While Offering to Protect DVD Sales
- The
Six Major Markets Are Becoming Mature and the New Markets
Won't Grow As Fast for Hollywood Content
- Two
Options-Acquire Off-Shore Studios or Introduce New Ways
to Gain Legal Access to Movie Content
- Three Major
Issues That the Studios Must Deal With In a Next-Generation Optical
Disc Format Approach
- High Definition
Video Won't Be Enough By Itself
- Educating
the Public About the Benefits of HDTV
- Fox
Television's Finest HDTV Standard
- Does
Surround Sound Mean High Definition, Too?
- A Need
for More HDTV Content
- Today's
HDTV Consumers Are Using High-End Standard Definition DVD
Players
- Delivering
HDTV Programming to the Largest Possible Audience May Include
Pushing HDTV Content Out to Set Top Boxes Equipped with
Hard Disk Drives
- Local
Over-the-Air Digital HDTV Broadcasts Are Vital
- Personal
Computers with HDTV Media Adapters May Become Very Popular
- Apple's
New iMac G5 With Front Row Also Expands this Market Segment
- HDTV
Interactive Program Guides-IPGs-Will Be A Glitch In The
US Market
- Europe
Will Take Years to Develop As a Market for HDTV Services
- Europe
Represents 30% of Today's Worldwide DVD Sales Value
- Europe
Will Still See Brisk Sales of Wide Screen HDTV-Capable Displays
- Interactivity
and Extended Features Will Become Important, Over and Above Support
for HDTV
- HD-DVD's
iHD for Interactivity Developed By Microsoft and Disney
- Blu-Ray's
HDMV Mode Provides Simple Upgrades Over DVD
- Blu-Ray's
BD-J(tm) Toolset Is Based On Java and Is Compatible With the
Multimedia Home Platform (MHP) and OCAP
- Blu-Ray
Is a Complete Consumer Platform, and Supports More Than
Movies
- Interactivity
Features Provide Flexibility and Differentiation To Help Increase
Sales, but Also Increase Complexity
- Version Control
Will Increase Complexity and Keep a Movie Title Active for Many
Years
- The Startling
Rise of HDTV-Capable TV Households Around the World
- Regional Number
of Total TV Households
- Four Key Items
That Pertain to Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display Devices
- TV Households
Likely to Have a Wide-Screen HDTV Display
- TV Households
With a Pay-TV HDTV Service
- TV Households
With an HDTV Display but No Pay-TV Service
- Households
With Broadband Internet Connections
- Apple's
iTunes With Video Service Appears to Foreshadow HDTV Delivery
- Microsoft's
Recent Settlement With Real Networks Looks Similar
- BT
(British Telecom) Group Launching a Broadband VOD Service
In 2006
- BT
Service Expects to Sell a Set Top Box With a Hard Disk Drive
- North American
Households With HDTV
- European Households
With HDTV
- Asia-Pacific
Households With HDTV
- Japanese Households
With HDTV
- Japan May
Experience an Over Abundance of HDTV Content
- Japan Will
Foretell the Future of High Definition TV Content
- Worldwide Households
With HDTV
- Households
With HDTV By Region
- Personal Computers
May Offer Some Key Interim Revenue Opportunities
- The Connected
Digital Home Is Coming
- Intel's
Viiv™ Entertainment PC Architecture
- Apple's
iMac Line Morphing Onto Intel Platform
- Microsoft
MediaCenter Edition Adding Adapters and HDTV
- Built In
Support for Content Protection & High Definition Content
- Microsoft's
Digital Rights Management (DRM) and HDCP
- Built-In
Support For Broadband Internet Connections
- Providing
High-Speed Download Delivery Services
- Broadband
Connection Speeds Keep Going Up
- Improving
Compression Techniques Make Files Smaller
- Trickle
Downloading Can Move Very Large Files Transparently
- Providing
Two-Way Connections for In-Depth Market Research
- Movielink,
CinemaNow, and Other Internet Movie Sites Are Already
Doing This
- Innovative
Interactivity Features
- Low-Cost
Platform to "Test Drive" Interactivity Features
- Interactive
Features Can Be Delivered to Non-HDTV Households
- Five Scenarios
For Next-Generation Optical Disc Formats
- Hollywood Has
Already Caught the Trend for Wide Screen Viewing
- "Letterbox"
Movies Morph Into "Wide Screen"
- Full
Screen DVD Releases Are Being Replaced With Wide Screen DVD
Releases
- Today's
Wide Screen DVD Releases May Usurp the Market for Tomorrow's
Next-Generation Products if High Definition Video Is the Only
Benefit
- Forward
Compatibility Is Being Built Into Next-Generation Disc Formats
- The Key Ingredient
Is Not the Technology-It's Help Growing New Revenue Streams
- The
Growing Middle Classes Might Be Attracted to a Next-Gen
Disc Format
- China's
Middle Class Families Could Be Worth Billions
- India,
Malaysia, and Other Asia-Pacific Countries Could Also Grow
- Latin
America and Eastern Europe Could Provide Growth, Too
- The Three
Technology Items-Discs, Interactivity, Broadband
- Scenario 1
- Scenario 2
- Scenario 3
- Scenario 4
- Scenario 5
- Sony
Pictures Entertainment is Firmly Committed to Blu-Ray's Success
- The HD-DVD
Camp Will Have to Demonstrate a Business Model
- Parent Companies
of the Major Hollywood Studios
- All Six
of "The Majors" Have Re-Structured During the Past
12 Months
- Owning A
Movie Studio Provides Some Unique Benefits
- Sony Corporation
- Sony
Will Drive Blu-Ray to Success As a Consumer Electronics Platform
- The Walt Disney
Company
- Disney
Becoming a Pioneer for Alternative Video Delivery Methods
- News Corporation
- The Eyes
of the World Are On News Corp.
- Time-Warner
- Warner
Bros. Entertainment Has Over 69,000 Pieces Of Content
- NBC-Universal-Part
Of General Electric
- Viacom
- What
Viacom and CBS Corporation Might Look Like Next Year
- Paramount
Studios Has Over 1,100 Titles Including Star Trek
- Forecasts for
Hollywood Video Content Sales By Region
- Four Categories
of Movie Products for Sale at Retail
- Traditional
DVD Optical Discs
- Portable
Player Movie Products
- Next-Generation
Optical Disc Products
- Movie
& TV Downloads
- North America
By Category
- Europe By Category
- Asia By Category
- ROW By Category
- Worldwide Summaries
By Category
- Regional Summaries-All
Categories Combined
- Our Final Thoughts
- Sony Will Have
to Win Big
- Microsoft &
Intel Will Drive their Vision Forward
- Apple Will
Also Play an Important Role In Digital Entertainment
- Consumers Will
Have a Lot of Options
- The Hollywood
Studios Will Adjust and Thrive
List
of Tables
- Table 1. Worldwide
Annual Value of Hollywood Movie Products Sold At Retail (US$ in Billions,
Annual Growth Percentage, Compound Annual Growth Rate)
- Table 2. Annual
US DVD Sales & Rentals for Major Hollywood Studios—2004 (Annual
Sales US$M, Annual Rentals US$M, Annual Total US$M)
- Table 3. Annual
International Sales Of DVDs For Major Hollywood Studios—2004 (Annual
Sales US$M, Percent of Worldwide Total, Cumulative Percent)
- Table 4. Households
With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display—North America (Households
in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of All TV Households, CAGR)
- Table 5. Households
With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display—Europe (Households in Millions,
Annual Growth Rate, Percent of All TV Households, CAGR)
- Table 6. Households
With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display—Asia-Pacific (Households
in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of All TV Households, CAGR)
- Table 7. Households
With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display—Japan (Households in Millions,
Annual Growth Rate, Percent of All TV Households, CAGR)
- Table 8. Households
With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display—Worldwide (Households in
Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of All TV Households, CAGR)
- Table 9. TV Households
With at Least One Wide Screen HDTV-Capable Display Device by Region
(Number of TV Households in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of
Worldwide Total, Compound Annual Growth Rate)
- Table 10. Typical
Download Speeds For Full Length Movie Files (Speed of Connection in
Mb/s, Size of File, Time in Minutes, Time in Hours)
- Table 11. Major
Assets And Businesses Of Sony Corporation—Owner Of Sony Pictures
Entertainment And MGM
- Table 12. Sony’s
Worldwide Revenue Breakout For 2004 (Annual Revenues by Segment, US$
Billions, Percent of Total)
- Table 13. Major
Assets and Businesses of the Walt Disney Company—Owner Of Buena
Vista Entertainment
- Table 14. Disney’s
Worldwide Revenue Breakout for 2004 (Annual Revenues by Segment, US$
Billions, Percent of Total)
- Table 15. Major
Assets and Businesses of News Corp.—Owner of Twentieth Century
Fox
- Table 16. News
Corp. Worldwide Revenue Breakout for Fiscal 2005 (Annual Revenues by
Segment, US$ Billions, Percent of Total)
- Table 17. Major
Assets and Businesses of Time-Warner—Owner of Warner Brothers Studios
- Table 18. Time-Warner
Worldwide Revenue Breakout for 2004 (Annual Revenues by Segment, US$
Billions, Percent of Total)
- Table 19. Major
Assets and Businesses of NBC Universal—Owner of Universal Studios
- Table 20. Major
Assets and Businesses of Viacom—Owner of Paramount Studios
- Table 21. Re-Structured
Media Assets of Proposed Viacom Entity
- Table 22. Re-Structured
Media Assets of Proposed CBS Corporation Entity
- Table 23. Viacom
Worldwide Revenue Breakout for 2004 (Annual Revenues by Segment, US$
Billions, Percent of Total)
- Table 24. Annual
Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category—North
America (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent
of Total, CAGR)
- Table 25. Annual
Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category—Europe
(Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total,
CAGR)
- Table 26. Annual
Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category—Asia
(Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total,
CAGR)
- Table 27. Annual
Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category—ROW
(Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total,
CAGR)
- Table 28. Annual
Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category—Worldwide
(Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total,
CAGR)
- Table 29. Annual
Retail Sales Value Of All Hollywood Video Products By Region (Annual
Sales Value, US$ Billions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
List
of Figures
- Figure 1. Annual
Worldwide Unit Shipments of Line-Powered DVD-Playback Capable Consumer
Electronics Products (Annual Unit Shipments in Millions)
- Figure 2. Households
With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display-North America (Households in
Millions)
- Figure 3. Households
With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display-Europe (Households in Millions)
- Figure 4. Households
With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display-Asia-Pacific (Households in
Millions)
- Figure 5. Households
With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display-Japan (Households in Millions)
- Figure 6. Households
With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display-Worldwide (Households in Millions)
- Figure 7. TV Households
With At Least One Wide Screen HDTV-Capable Display Device by Region
(Number of TV Households in Millions)
- Figure 8. Annual
Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category- North America
(Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions)
- Figure 9. Annual
Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category-Europe (Annual
Sales Value, US$ Billions)
- Figure 10. Annual
Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category-Asia (Annual
Sales Value, US$ Billions)
- Figure 11. Annual
Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category-ROW (Annual
Sales Value, US$ Billions)
- Figure 12. Annual
Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category-Worldwide
(Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions)
- Figure 13. Annual
Retail Sales Value of All Hollywood Video Products By Region (Annual
Sales Value, US$ Billions)
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