Intel and Flash: Playing in Both NAND and NOR

• WW revenue forecasts for the NOR and NAND Flash memory markets
• Analysis of Intel’s Flash manufacturing capacity
• Analysis of Intel’s Flash strategy
Key finding from the report:
• NAND Flash revenues are expected to grow at a 30% CAGR, and NOR revenues at a 3% CAGR over the forecast period
• Intel’s battle for leadership in NOR Flash in affecting its profit margin and forcing competitors out of the market
• Intel plans to open one new 300mm wafer fab every year with its IMFT joint venture with Micron
• The way Intel has organized and positioned the Flash group within the company could make it easy to dispose of if profitability and market leadership can not be achieved

Executive Summary

Introduction

Intel in NOR: Recent Activity

A Look at the 2006 Restructuring

Intel’s Strategy Shift in 2003: Recapturing Discarded Businesses

Why It Happened

Impact on Other Players

What is Likely to Result in the Future?

NOR Product Lineup and Roadmap

What is Driving the Company’s Product Mix?

Threats Posed to Intel’s StrataFlash by Spansion’s MirrorBit

PRAM: Why Are They Doing This, and When Will It Matter?

Manufacturing Capacity

The Rationale of Consolidating Fabs

The Failure of Intel’s “Drafting” Strategy

Price Analysis: Understanding the Dynamic That Controls Pricing at Higher Densities

Competition/Market Position

Market Share vs. Profitability

Forecast

Industry Outlook and What This Means to Intel

IM Flash Technologies—Intel’s Foray Into NAND

Overview of IM Flash Technologies

Structure of the Business: What Each Company Brings to the Table

IP Issues Needing Resolution

Intel’s Efforts to Standardize NAND Pinouts

Manufacturing Capacity

IM Flash’s Ramp Plans

Understanding NAND’s Dramatic Price Falls

Competition/Market Position

NAND Vendor Analyses

Samsung

Toshiba

SanDisk

Hynix

How the Competition Stacks Up Against IMFT

Forecast

Future NAND Market Drivers

Summary

Expectations for Intel

Spin-Off Options: Why Might One of These Make Sense?

Market Opportunities and Competitive Threats

Methodology

Related In-Stat Reports

List of Tables

Table 1. NAND and NOR 5-Year Revenue Forecasts

Table 2. Intel’s NOR Product Families

Table 3. Approximate Year of Introduction for New Processes and their Impact

Table 4. Memory Density Trend of Cell Handsets

Table 5. Intel NOR Wafer Fabs

Table 6. Intel and Spansion Comparative Revenues (US$ in Millions) and Market Share

Table 7. Market Share vs. Profits (US$ in Millions): Intel and Spansion

Table 8. NOR 5-Year Revenue Forecast (US$ in Billions)

Table 9. IMFT Production Capacity Ramp

Table 10 NAND Historical Price per Gigabyte and Sequential and Annual Growth

Table 11. NAND Market Share

Table 12. NAND 5-Year Revenue Forecast

List of Figures

Figure 1. NAND and NOR 5-Year Revenue Forecasts (US$ in Billions)

Figure 2. Memory Density Trend of Cell Handsets

Figure 3. Intel and Spansion Comparative Revenues (US$ in Millions) and Market Share

Figure 4. Market Share vs. Profits: Intel and Spansion

Figure 5. NOR 5-Year Revenue Forecast

Figure 6. IMFT Production Capacity Ramp (300mm Wafer Equivalents in Thousands)

Figure 7. NAND Historical Price Per Gigabyte 2004-2006

Figure 8. NAND Market Share by Vendor (US$ in Millions)

Figure 9. NAND 5-Year Revenue Forecast (US$ in Billions)