The Road to 4G: Will LTE, UMB and WiMAX Just Be Stops Along the Way?

Companies are extremely uncomfortable talking about "4G" technologies per se, since the ITU has not defined 4G yet. Most companies believe that the characteristics of IMT-Advanced, as defined by the ITU, will represent a definition of 4G. Two expected requirements within IMT-Advanced are that technologies be OFDMA-based, and that they support 100Mbps for mobile applications. Long Term Evolution (LTE), Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB), and 802.16m WiMAX all fulfill these requirements, and are the primary 4G technology contenders.

Each of the 4G technologies has a head cheerleader, with Intel supporting WiMAX, Ericsson touting LTE, and Qualcomm preferring UMB.

LTE, UMB and 802.16m WiMAX are expected to be initially implemented in 2010; however, looking at the slow uptake rate of EV-DO and HSPA, it may be 2012 and beyond. In-Stat actually forecasts that GSM/GPRS and GSM/EDGE handsets will still make up the majority of cellular handsets in 2011, with EV-DO and HSPA handsets expected to overtake 2G technologies in 2012. This, perhaps, points to a slow build-out of 4G networks, in which operators will maintain their 3G networks for a long time, running these as complementary to their 4G networks.

Initial implementations of LTE, UMB and 802.16m technologies may fall short of throughput and other expectations, with later enhancements to one or more of these technologies, or even some type of technology blend, actually bringing real 4G to the table.

Executive Summary

Introduction

What is 4G?

ITU Definition

OFDMA

Informal Uses of “4G” Terminology

NGMN alliance

3G History and Overview

1G Technologie

2G Technologie

3G Technologies

The “Real” 3G Technologies

802.16e Mobile WiMAX

State of the Cellular and WiMAX Markets

Cellular Forecasts

Cellular Handset Forecasts: 2G/2.5G Technologies Dominate Market

Cellular in Mobile PCs: Still Waiting for Volumes

WiMAX Forecasts

4G Alternatives

LTE

UMB

802.16m WiMAX

4G Technology Cheerleaders: The Big Three

Ericsson

Qualcomm

Intel

Vendor Landscape

Equipment Vendors

Alcatel-Lucent

Nortel

Samsung

Semiconductor Vendors

Marvell

TI

Carriers

Sprint

Market Drivers

Glossary

Methodology

Related In-Stat Reports

List of Tables

Table 1. Mobile WiMAX Profiles

Table 2. Technologies Comparison: EV-DO vs. HSPA vs. 802.16e Mobile WiMAX

Table 3. Cellular Handset Chipset Forecasts per Technology

Table 4. Cellular Modem Chipset Unit Forecasts—for Mobile PCs (Units in Thousands)

Table 5. 802.16e Mobile WiMAX Chipset Shipment Forecasts—by Form Factor (Units in Thousands)

Table 6. Ericsson’s Expectation for Embedded 3G Cellular in Mobile PCs vs. In-Stat’s Forecast (Units in Thousands)

Table 7. Embedded Wi-Fi Attach Rate in Mobile PCs

Table 8. WiMAX Attach Rate in Mobile PCs—Trending to Wi-Fi’s Historical Attach Rate

List of Figures

Figure 1. What is 4G?

Figure 2. Cellular and WiMAX Technologies Timeline

Figure 3. Cellular Handset Chipset Forecasts per Technology

Figure 4. Cellular Modem Chipset Forecasts—for Mobile PCs (Units in Thousands)

Figure 5. 802.16e Mobile WiMAX Chipset Shipment Forecasts—by Form Factor (Units in Thousands)

Figure 6. Ericsson’s Expectation for Embedded 3G Cellular in Mobile PCs vs. In-Stat’s Forecast (Units in Thousands)

Figure 7. Qualcomm’s View of 3G Cellular Ubiquitous Coverage vs. More Limited Coverage of OFMA-based Mobile Broadband Technologies

Figure 8. Qualcomm’s Wireless WAN Technology Positioning

Figure 9. Can Intel Make This Happen?: Wi-Fi Attach Rate to Mobile PCs versus WiMAX Attach Rate to Mobile PCs, Mirroring Wi-Fi Attach Rate

Figure 10. Samsung’s Vision for 4G vs. Mobile WiMAX vs. HSDPA