3G At The Crossroads Q1 '01 3G Update

Here we are a day later and a dollar shorter. Now that the euphoria of 3G has worn off, (no, it has actually rusted) the industry is trying desperately to salvage what little is left. The financial impact of mega-? spending for spectrum, followed by seemingly unreal financing arrangements has taken its toll. While the industry will may never fully recover, we can only hope that what little glimmer remains on the 3G star can be enhanced with some elbow grease.

Of this much we can be certain: Here comes Japan, Inc. The key ingredient for rapid commercialization is the handset. Matsushita manufactures the first handset available, and the NEC offering will soon follow it. With NTT DoCoMo still planning a May 31 introduction, it is easy to believe that the Roses will soon follow. However, nationwide coverage in Japan will not be available until late 2002, at the earliest.

• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  
• METHODOLOGY
  
• OVERVIEW
  
  
  
  • JUST WHAT IS 3G?
    
  • WHAT 3G IS NOT
    
  
  
  
• 3G SPECTRUM OVERVIEW
  
  
  
  • 3G EVOLUTION PRIMER
    
  
  
  
• DEPLOYMENT TIME TABLE
  
• GPRS DEPLOYMENT
  
• 3G STATUS AND AWARDS
  
• THE ECONOMICS OF 3G
  
  
  
  • INCUMBENT OPTIONS
    
    
    
    • EDGE
      
    
    
    
  
  
  
• SHOW ME THE MONEY
  
  
  
  • THE FORECAST
    
    
    
    • Subscribers
      
    
    
    
  • INFRASTRUCTURE
    
    
    
    • Revenue Projections
      
    
    
    
  
  
  
• SUMMARY
  
  
  
  
  
• List of Tables
  
  
  
  • Table 1: Worldwide Subscriber Forecast (Millions)
    
  • Table 2: 3G System Specifications
    
  • Table 3: GPRS Launch Dates
    
  • Table 4: UMTS License Award Status and Timetable
    
  • Table 5: 3G License Award Score Card
    
  • Table 6: Infrastructure Award Score Card
    
  • Table 7: System Upgrade Cost Estimates
    
  • Table 8: ARPU Source
    
  • Table 9: Worldwide Subscriber Forecast
    
  • Table 10: 2000 Infrastructure Spending ($ Billions)
    
  • Table 11: Infrastructure SOM
    
  • Table 12: UMTS by Geographic Region
    
  • Table 13: CDMA 2000 by Geographic Region
    
  
  
  
  
• List of Figures
  
  
  
  • Figure 1: Worldwide Subscriber Forecast
    
  • Figure 2: 3G Wireless Infrastructure
    
  • Figure 3: Possible 3G Applications
    
  • Figure 4: IMT-2000 Harmonization Paths
    
  • Figure 5: 2G to 3G Migration Paths
    
  • Figure 6: Anticipated Deployment Timetable
    
  • Figure 7: ARPU Revenue Streams
    
  • Figure 8: 2.5G & 3G Revenue Projection
    
  • Figure 9: Worldwide Subscriber Forecast
    
  • Figure 10: Worldwide Infrastructure Forecast
    
  • Figure 11: Combined 2G & 3G Revenue Projection