V.92 - Broadening Narrowband

This report looks at the emerging analog modem standard V.92. V.92 broadens the features currently available on V.90 modems. The three new official features found on V.92 modems are: modem-on-hold, quick connect, and PCM upstream. A fourth unofficial feature is also being bundled with V.92 - V.44. V.44 increases data compression. The real issue with V.92 is which comes first, consumer purchases of the modem or service provider support for the new standard.

In-Stat/MDR estimates that in 2001 close to 11% of all US consumer analog modems shipped were V.92. This will grow to close to 44% in the year 2003 and nearly 100% by the year 2004. Furthermore, dial-up access will remain the primary access technology in the US home through 2006. With both the amount of modems being shipped, and the percent of homes using dial-up, service providers won't be able to hold off on their V.92 plans for long.

Currently the only national service provider to have announced plans for V.92 support is Level 3. To date, most service provider support for the new modem standard has come from regional ISPs.

This report is based primarily on supply side research of the primary players in this market - modem manufacturers, computer vendors, network equipment vendors, Internet backbone providers, and ISPs. This report contains five-year forecasts for US consumer and worldwide branded and non-branded V.92/V.90 shipments, and a five-year forecast for primary US household access technology.

Executive Summary

Methodology

Introduction

V.92 Modem Overview

Market Drivers

Modem Features and Applications

Primary Access in the Home

Market Shapers

Demand Side

Supply Side

Network Equipment Vendors

Service Providers

Future Directions

Appendix

Modem Vendors

Network Equipment Vendors

Internet Backbone Provider

Internet Service Providers

List of Tables

Table 1. Percent of US Homes Accessing the Internet via Dial-up vs. Broadband, 2001-2006

Table 2. Number of US Homes Online by Access Technology, 2001-2006

Table 3. Total US Consumer Analog Modem Shipments, 2001-2006

Table 4. Percent of Total US Consumer Analog Modem Market V.90 vs. V.92, 2001-2006

Table 5. US Consumer Branded V.90 and V.92 Modem Shipments, 2001-2006

Table 6. US Consumer Non-Branded V.90 and V.92 Modem Shipments, 2001-2006

Table 7. Total Worldwide V.90 and V.92 Modem Shipments, 2001-2006

Table 8. Percent of Total Worldwide Modem Shipments V.90 vs. V.92, 2001-2006

Table 9. Total Worldwide Branded V.90 and V.92 Modem Shipments, 2001-2006

Table 10. Total Worldwide Non-Branded V.90 and V.92 Modem Shipments, 2001-2006

List of Figures

Figure 1. Percent of Total US Consumer Analog Modem Market V.90 vs. V.92, 2001-2006

Figure 2. V.92 Modem Standards - Official and Unofficial

Figure 3. Value Matrix of V.92 Modem Features

Figure 4. Percent of US Homes Accessing the Internet via Dial-up vs. Broadband, 2001-2006

Figure 5. Number of US Homes Online by Access Technology, 2001-2006

Figure 6. Total US Consumer Analog Modem Shipments, 2001-2006

Figure 7. US Consumer Branded V.90 and V.92 Modem Shipments, 2001-2006

Figure 8. US Consumer Non-Branded V.90 and V.92 Modem Shipments, 2001-2006

Figure 9. Cumulative US Consumer V.92 Modem Shipments vs. Dial-up Homes, 2001-2006

Figure 10. Total Worldwide V.90 and V.92 Modem Shipments, 2001-2006

Figure 11. Percent of Total Worldwide Modem Shipments V.90 vs. V.92, 2001-2006

Figure 12. Total Worldwide Branded V.90 and V.92 Modem Shipments, 2001-2006

Figure 13. Total Worldwide Non-Branded V.90 and V.92 Modem Shipments, 2001-2006