U.S. Broadband TV Platform Strategies & Roadmaps - Survey of Media, Internet, MSO,

U.S. Broadband TV Platform Strategies & Roadmaps - Survey of Media, Internet, MSO, Telecom, CE Players

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Fuji-Keizai USA, Inc.
Published: February 2006
Product Code: R98-174

Description

Every major U.S. media company is rapidly adjusting to changes that are altering entrenched TV viewing habits. The battle over the future of TV watching is being fueled by three primary factors: 1) sluggish advertising trends that are changing TV economics; 2) changing demographics; and 3) impact of technologies that shift control of the TV schedule away from media companies and to the consumer.

TV ad revenues are in decline, impacting overall broadcast income. The slide could become permanent. CBS Television Network forecasts ad spending on the four big TV networks (CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox) will grow by 1.5% in 2005. Likewise, newspaper advertising is way off also; although it increased by 3.5% in 2005, growth is forecast downward to 2.4% in 2006. By contrast, Internet advertising increased at double-digit rates in 2005 - by various estimates from 15% to 30% - and it is projected to increase between 22% to 37% in 2006.

Clearly, the growth patterns favor Internet advertising. The declines in once-reliable TV and newspaper ad revenues are partly the result of the erosion of the young adult demographic between the ages of 18-49 that advertisers pay a premium to reach. TV viewership among this group is down by one-third since 1993 as more consumers in this key demographic turn to options other than the living-room TV for getting news and entertainment. These alternative sources of news and entertainment include Internet blogs and podcasts that allow a more personalized, selectable experience, as well as video games and DVDs that grab mind-share.

Change in Revenue Source - Market, Technology and Business Opportunities
TV is a 75-year old "killer application." It is one of the most accepted applications in the world. Yet the long-accepted concepts of how TV networks work are starting to change. "Time shifted" TV viewing and portability trends are starting the unbundling of TV programming. As always, change usually brings two things in equal measure: uncertainty and opportunity. The opportunity comes from various new economic models for TV, one or more of which will be applied. Uncertainty means that it is difficult to identify which of the new business models will be winners and which will fail.

Media Industry
Media companies include TV news and entertainment broadcasters and news publishers. The dominant way to make money today on their TV or news programming is to sell advertising against shows (preferring high-rated shows over low-rated ones) or/and to sell reruns and DVDs. Newspapers, too, sell ads against their core editorial product. In the digital marketplace, selling ads isn't the only way to make money. The introduction of new technology platforms and video-on-demand distribution will make it easier for the media to sell directly to consumers without always having to go through cable and satellite TV operators.

Service Provider Industry
Media companies are largely dependent on cable and satellite TV operators, cellular network operators and other digital gatekeepers, like ISPs, all of whom distribute their programming. Cable operators and telephone companies in particular will battle for "quadruple play" bundles of TV entertainment, voice, broadband and/or mobile services, all on one bill. MSOs are at a disadvantage in terms of capabilities for mobile TV services, but are quickly moving ahead with a wireless strategy. RBOCs are moving along in their TV initiatives. It may ultimately be less expensive, and faster, for cable operators to develop the capability to offer wireless phone services than it is for phone companies to sell TV. Nonetheless, no one underestimates the RBOC threat to cable TV.

Net Industry
Internet companies want also to be providers of Internet TV services. Video content plays a large role in web portals, which have paved the way for online video ads by standardizing the video players on their sites. Strong Internet companies, notably Yahoo, Google and AOL, are now making video search and search aggregation and programming a priority, because they believe it is an area they can effectively compete and make money in.

End-User Terminal Products Maker Industry
The PC, consumer electronics (CE) and TV industries are, at last, collaborating and converging. Through 2006/07, PC industry players will be launching new products designed to become service platforms for ensuring that there'll be much more Internet access into television sets and TV access in PC and CE devices.

Table of Contents

Section 1: Media's Net Strategy

1.1 The Background and Influencing Factors (why media giants must intrude on the Net business)

1.2 Major Media's Net Strategy: Summary

1.3 Major Media's Net Strategy: In Detail

1.3.1 ABC/Disney

Overall Strategy (alliances, technology used, advertising vs. subscriber fees)

ABC/Disney iPod-Downloadable Programming (at launch)

Market Size (estimated # of subscribers)

Scenario 2005-2008 (including revenue projection)

1.3.2 NBC Universal (NBCU)

Overall Strategy (alliances, technology used, advertising vs. subscriber fees)

NBCU iPod-Downloadable Programming (at launch)

Market Size (estimated # subscribers)

Scenario 2005-2008 (including revenue projection)

1.3.3 CBS

Overall Strategy (alliances, technology used, advertising vs. subscriber fees)

CBS Downloadable TV Shows and Distribution Platform (at launch)

Market Size (estimated # subscribers)

Scenario 2005-2008 (including revenue projection)

1.3.4 FOX (News Corp.)

Overall Strategy (alliances, technology used, advertising vs. subscriber fees)

Fox Downloadable TV Shows and Distribution Platforms (at launch)

Market Size (estimated # of subscribers)

Scenario 2005-2008 (including revenue projection)

1.3.5 CNN

Overall Strategy (alliances, technology used, advertising vs. subscriber fees)

CNN Pipeline: Paid News Service Tiers

Market Size (estimated # of subscribers)

Scenario 2005-2008 (including revenue projection)

1.3.6 UPN

Overall Strategy (alliances, technology used, advertising vs. subscriber fees)

Market Size (estimated # of subscribers)

Scenario 2005-2008 (including revenue projection)

1.3.7 Warner Bros. (WB)

Overall Strategy (alliances, technology used, advertising vs. subscriber fees)

WB's In2TV TV Channels (planned at launch)

Market Size (estimated # of subscribers)

Scenario 2005-2008 (including revenue projection)

1.3.8 New York Times (NYT)

Overall Strategy (alliances, technology used, advertising vs. subscriber fees)

Regular Free Streaming Videos at NYTimes.com

Market Size (estimated # of subscribers)

Scenario 2005-2008 (including revenue projection)

1.3.9 AP (Associated Press)

Overall Strategy (alliances, technology used, advertising vs. subscriber fees)

AP Video News Network Packages

Market size (estimated # of subscribers)

Scenario 2005-2008 (including revenue projection)

1.4 Media's Net Strategy Advantages (Strong Points) and Weaknesses

Summary: Comparison of Company-by-Company Net Strategies

1.5 Consumers' Acceptance

1.6 Researcher's Analysis of the Media's Net Strategy and Future of TV

Revenue Model Analysis

Business Strategy Analysis

Section 2: End-User Products and Services Market

2.1 Emerging Products with TV Viewing Option: Summary

Researcher Comments

2.2 Segment: Portable Devices

A. CELL PHONES

1. Market Overview

1.1 Market Structure and End-User Terminal Positioning

Sprint TV Content Partners and Packages

Summary: U.S. Cellular Operators with 3G Mobile TV Services

1.2 Major Players

1.3 Service Market

1.4 Consumer's Acceptance and Its Reason

B. PDAs

1. Market Overview

1.1 Market Structure and End-User Terminal Positioning

1.2 Major Players

1.3 Service Market

1.4 Consumer's Acceptance and Its Reason

C. PORTABLE MEDIA PLAYERS

1. Market Overview

1.1 Market Structure and End-User Terminal Positioning

1.2 Major Players

1.3 Service Market

1.4 Consumer's Acceptance and Its Reason

2.3 Segment: Digital Recorders

A. DVRs

1. Market Overview

1.1 Market Structure and End-User' Terminal Positioning

1.2 Major Players

1.3 Service Market

1.4 Consumer's Acceptance and Its Reason

B. MEDIA PCs

1. Market Overview

1.1 Market Structure and End-User' Terminal Positioning

1.2 Major Players

Announced Content Partners for Intel Viiv Systems

1.3 Service Market

1.4 Consumer's Acceptance and Its Reason

2.4 Market Size Forecasts

A. Segment: Portables

1. Cellular Phone Market Size (Worldwide)

Cellular Phone Market Size (U.S.)

1.1 Cell Phone Service Market Size (U.S.)

2. PDA Market Size (U.S.)

2.1 PDA Service Market Size (U.S.)

3. Portable Video Player Market Size (U.S.)

3.1 Portable Video Download Service Market (U.S.)

　B. Segment: Digital Recorders

1. DVR Market Size (U.S.)

1.1 DVR Service Market Size Forecast (U.S.)

2. Media PC Market Size (U.S.)

2. Media PC Market Size (U.S.)

2.1 Service Market Size Forecast (U.S.)

2.6 Future Trends and Directions

1. Products Development and Service Development

1.1 Needs

1.2 New Developments

Section 3: The War (Battles) between MSO (CATV) & RBOC (IPTV)

3.1 The War: The background and influencing factors

3.2 The War Summary

3.3 MSO & RBOC Strategic Weapons

3.4 Technology Advantage in Comparison between MSO and RBOC

MSO Advantage and Opportunities

RBOC Advantage and Opportunities

Summary of Major RBOC IPTV Technologies

IPTV: Not Just for RBOCs

3.5 Subscriber Advantage in Comparison between MSO and RBOC

Subscriber Comparison: MSOs vs. RBOCs

FiOS TV Service Availability

3.6 Triple Play to Quadra Play Strategy: Scenario 2006-2008

2006: Wireless Makes Quad Play

Merged Wireless-VoIP Services

RBOC IPTV Opportunity

3.7 VOD Trends and Future

Cable VOD to PC

Ad-supported VOD

RBOC VOD Opportunity

3.8 Set-top with DVR Strategy

MSO Strategy 117

RBOC Strategy

3.9 Media's Strategy for MSO and RBOC

RBOC Strategy

MSO Strategy and Challenges

MSO ITV Efforts

A La Carte Content Bundles

Section 4: The Future of TV, Its Big Change

4.1 Big Change Summary

4.2 Big Change in Revenue Source - Market, Technology, Business Opportunities

4.2.1 Media Industry

Variable Pricing Models for VOD

Media Roadmap for Broadcast/Telecom Convergence

Telecom/Broadcast Convergence: ABC and CBS Content

4.2.2 Advertising Industry

In-stream Advertising

Paid TV search

DVR advertising

VOD "in-content" advertising

4.2.3 Service Provider Industry

Service Provider Roadmap for Telecom/Broadcast Convergence

4.2.4 Net Industry

4.2.5 End-User Terminal Products Maker Industry

LIST OF TABLES

1. Major Media’s Net Strategy: Summary

2. ABC/Disney Alliance

3. ABC/Disney iPod-Downloadable Programming (at launch)

4. ABC's iPod Video Revenue Projection

5. NBC Universal (NBCU) Alliance

6. NBCU iPod-Downloadable Programming (at launch)

7. NBC's iPod Video Revenue Projection

8. CBS Alliance

9. CBS Downloadable TV Shows and Distribution Platform (at launch)

10. CBS Revenue Projection from Online Video Advertising and User Paid Downloads

11. FOX (News Corp.) Alliance

12. Fox Downloadable TV Shows and Distribution Platforms (at launch)

13. Fox's VOD Revenue Projection

14. CNN Alliance

15. CNN Pipeline: Paid News Service Tiers

16. CNN Online/TV Advertising Revenue Projection

17. CNN Pipeline Subscriber Revenue Projection

18. UPN Alliance

19. Warner Bros. Alliance

20. WB's In2TV TV Channels (planned at launch)

21. New York Times (NYT)

22. Regular Free Streaming Videos at NYTimes.com

23. NYT TimesSelect Subscriber Revenue Projection

24. AP (Associated Press) Alliance

25. AP Video News Network Packages

26. U.S. Online Video Advertising Projections (Conservative Estimate)

27. AP Online Video Advertising: Revenue Projection

28. Summary: Comparison of Company-by-Company Net Strategies

29. Consumers' Acceptance Viewpoint

30. Emerging Products with TV Viewing Option: Summary

31. Cell Phones Sprint TV Content Partners and Packages

32. Cell Phones Summary: U.S. Cellular Operators with 3G Mobile TV Services

33. Cell Phones Major Players

34. Cell Phones Service Market

35. Cell Phones Consumer’s Acceptance and Its Reason

36. PDAs Major Players

37. PSAs Service Market

38. PDAs Consumer’s Acceptance and Its Reason

39. Portable Media Players

40. Portable Media Major Players

41. Portable Media Service Market

42. Portable Media Consumer’s Acceptance and Its Reason

43. DVDs Major Players

44. DVDs Service Market

45. DVDs Consumer’s Acceptance and Its Reason

46. Media PCs Major Players

47. Media PCs Announced Content Partners for Intel Viiv Systems

48. Media PCs Service Market

49. Media PCs Consumer’s Acceptance and Its Reason

50. Cellular Phone Market size (Worldwide)

51. Cellular Phone Market Size (U.S.)

52. Cell Phone Service Market Size (U.S.)

53. PDA Market Size (U.S.)

54. PDA Service Market Size (U.S.)

55. Portable Video Player Market Size (U.S.)

56. Portable Video Download Service Market (U.S.)

57. DVR Market Size (U.S.)

58. DVR Service Market Size Forecast (U.S.)

59. Media PC Market Size (U.S.)

60. Service Market Size Forecast (U.S.)

61. New Developments

62. The War Summary

63. Summary of Major RBOC IPTV Technologies

64. Subscriber Comparison: MSOs vs. RBOCs

65. FiOS TV Service Availability

66. MSO ITV Efforts

67. Future TV Big Change Summary

68. Variable Pricing Models for VOD

69. Media Roadmap for Broadcast/Telecom Convergence

70. Content Roadmaps for Telecom/Broadcast Convergence: Major TV Networks

71. Advertising Roadmap for Telecom/Broadcast Convergence

72. Service Provider Roadmap for Telecom/Broadcast Convergence

73. Net Industry Telecom/Broadcast Convergence Roadmap

74. Computer Industry Telecom/Broadcast Convergence Roadmap

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