Worldwide Flash Memory Market

The flash memory market has growth at an extremely fast rate, especially when compared with all other types of semiconductors. Much of this can be owed to the rabid use of flash memory in iPod portable media players, but also to the growth of the cellular phone market, where over 1.2 billion handsets are expected to be sold worldwide this year alone, as well as other electronic devices. We also investigate the various flash memory vendors, as well as their upcoming technology innovations and fabrication plant production plans.

Within the flash memory market there are two architectures NOR and NAND. In this report, we include projections for both NAND and NOR revenues and shipments. In 2005, total NAND revenues surpassed NOR revenues for the first time. The cellular phone is becoming a more important device for populating NAND chips, when that device previously almost exclusively used NOR chips. Besides the cellular phone market we dissect the various applications and devices where flash memory chips are being and will be used. We include projections for these major applications and devices that use flash memory.

Within its traditional core PC market, flash memory continues to play an important role, especially with the recent release of Microsoft’s new operating system—Vista. This new OS supports two new flash memory schemes ReadyBoost and ReadyDrive. Microsoft’s old partner, Intel has also gotten into the act with Turbo Memory (code name Robson), which support a flash memory architecture on the PC motherboard. Last of all solid state drives using flash memory and hybrid hard drives (HHD) using flash memory cache are beginning to appear in PCs. All of these latest innovations are designed to boost PC speed, performance and reliability and should insurance a greater use of flash memory with or within the PC for the foreseeable future.

We also present information on research into shrinking the flash die size and creating newer architectures such as Phase Change Memory and 3D Memory. Although the most cutting edges of these technologies are still years away from mass production, they may offer the next leap in flash memory technology.

1. Worldwide Flash Memory Market Trends and Forecasts 2005 - 2010

1.1 Worldwide NOR + NAND Market Demand and Forecast

Table 1-1 Worldwide NOR + NAND Market Demand and Forecast

Figure 1-1 Worldwide NOR + NAND Market Demand and Forecast

1.2 Worldwide Flash Memory Market Demand and Forecast by Type NAND or NOR

Table 1-2 Worldwide Market Demand and Forecast by Type NAND or NOR

Figure 1-2 Worldwide Market Demand and Forecast by Type NAND or NOR 2006

Figure 1-3 Worldwide Market Demand and Forecast by Type NAND or NOR 2010

1.3 Flash Memory Vendor Production 2005 - 2006

1.3.1 Total Flash Memory (NAND + NOR)

Table 1-3 Market Share by Vendors

Figure 1-4 Market Share by Vendors

1.3.2 NAND Market Share by Vendors 2005 - 2006

Table 1-4 NAND Market Share by Vendors

Figure 1-5 NAND Market Share by Vendors

1.3.2.1 NAND Competitors & Strategic Position

1.3.2.1.1 Samsung Electronics

1.3.2.1.2 Intel

1.3.2.1.3 IM Flash Technologies LLC (Intel and Micron Joint Venture)

1.3.2.1.4 Micron

1.3.2.1.5 Toshiba

1.3.2.1.6 SanDisk

1.3.2.1.7 Hynix

1.3.3 NOR Market Share by Vendors

Table 1-5 NOR Market Share by Vendors

Figure 1-6 NOR Market Share by Vendors

1.3.3.1 NOR Competitors and Strategic Position

1.3.3.1.1 Spansion Inc.

1.3.3.1.2 Samsung

1.3.3.1.3 Intel and STMicroelectronics

1.4 Flash Memory Vendors Production (Fabrication Plant Expansion) Status and Plans

1.4.1 Samsung Electronics

1.4.2 Toshiba and SanDisk

1.4.3 Intel

1.4.4 STMicroelectronics

1.4.5 Intel and STMicroelectronics NOR Flash Private Company

1.4.6 Spansion

1.5 Flash Memory Storage Devices

1.5.1 2006 Worldwide Market Share by Memory Card Format

Table 1-6 Market Share by Memory Card Format

Figure 1-7 Market Share by Memory Card Format

Table 1-7 Card Format Type, Major Vendors and Applications

1.5.1.1 Types of Flash Memory Cards

1.5.1.2 Newer Flash Card Memory Formats

1.5.2 Flash Memory Card Market Demand and Forecast 2005 - 2010

1.5.2.1 Worldwide Market Demand and Forecast

Table 1-8 Market Demand and Forecast

Figure 1-8 Market Demand and Forecast (QTY)

Figure 1-9 Market Demand and Forecast (Revenue)

1.5.3 Flash Memory Card Vendors and Strategic Position

Table 1-9 Vendors Market Share 2006

Figure 1-10 Vendors Market Share 2006

1.5.3.1 SanDisk

1.5.3.2 Lexar/Micron

1.5.3.3 Sony

1.6 Worldwide USB Flash Drives Market Production Demand 2005 - 2010

Table 1-10 Market Demand and Forecast

Figure 1-11 Market Demand and Forecast (QTY)

Figure 1-12 Market Demand and Forecast (Revenue)

Figure 1-13 USB Flash Drives Capacity Trends

1.6.1 Microsoft Vista’s Ready boost

1.6.2 Capacity Trends

Table 1-11 Average Annual Capacity Increase of Flash Memory Chip 2005 - 2010

Figure 1-14 NAND Flash Yearly Change in Capacity

Figure 1-15 NOR Flash Yearly Change in Capacity

1.6.3 Scaling Problem

1.6.3.1 Movements to 50 nm, 40 nm and 35 nm Manufacturing Process

1.7 Price Trends

Table 1-12 NAND and NOR Price Percentage Change Per Year 2005 - 2010

Figure 1-16 NAND and NOR Price Percentage Change Per Year 2005 - 2010

Figure 1-17 Flash Memory Cards Price Trends 2004 - 2006

2. Flash Memory Applications and Products Trends and Forecasts

2.1 B2C & B2B

2.1.1 B2C

Table 2-1 Portable Devices

(Application or Product, Technology Type, Vendor)

Table 2-2 Non-Portable Devices

(Application or Product, Technology Type, Vendor)

Table 2-3 Flash Memory Segment: Characteristics and Applications

(Segment, Characteristics, Applications)

2.1.2 B2B

Table 2-4 Portable Devices

(Application or Product, Technology Type, Vendor)

Table 2-5 Non-Portable Devices

(Application or Product, Technology Type, Vendor)

2.2 Market Forecasts for Flash Memory Applications and Products

2.2.1 B2C

2.2.1.1 Portable Devices

Table 2-6 Worldwide Portable Devices Unit Sales and Forecast 2005 - 2010

Figure 2-1 Worldwide Cellular Phone Unit Sales Projections 2005 - 2010

Figure 2-2 Worldwide MP3 and PMP Units sales Projections 2005 - 2010

Figure 2-3 Worldwide PDA/Handheld PC Sales Projections 2005 - 2010

Figure 2-4 Worldwide Digital Camera Sales Projections 2005 - 2010

Figure 2-5 Worldwide Notebook PC Sales Projections 2005 - 2010

2.2.1.1.1 Cellular Phones

Table 2-7 Worldwide Mobile Phones and Smartphones Market Share by Vendor 2006

Figure 2-6 Worldwide Market Share for Mobile Phone 2006

2.2.1.1.2 MP3/PMP

Table 2-8 US Market Shares by Vendor 2006

Figure 2-7 US Market Share by Vendor 2006

Figure 2-8 Walletex MP3 Player

2.2.1.1.3 PDA/Handheld PCs

Table 2-9 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

Figure 2-9 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

2.2.1.1.4 Digital Cameras

Table 2-10 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

Figure 2-10 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

2.2.1.1.5 Notebook PCs

Table 2-11 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

Figure 2-11 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

2.2.1.1.6 Portable Video Games

Table 2-12 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

Figure 2-12 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

2.2.1.2 Non-Portable Devices

Table 2-13 Market Demand and Forecast 2005 - 2010

Figure 2-13 Worldwide Desktop PC Units Shipment Projection

Figure 2-14 Worldwide Set Top Box Sales Projections

Figure 2-15 Worldwide Ink Jet Printer Sales Projections

Figure 2-16 Worldwide Current Generation Video Game Consoles Projections

2.2.1.2.1 Desktop PCs

Table 2-14 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

Figure 2-17 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

2.2.1.2.2 Set Top Boxes

2.2.1.2.3 Inkjet Printers

Table 2-15 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

Figure 2-18 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

2.2.1.2.4 Video Games

Table 2-16 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

Figure 2-19 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006

2.2.2 B2B

2.2.2.1 Ruggedized Notebook PCs with Flash Drives

2.2.2.2 SSD in Data Centers and Enterprises

2.2.2.3 SSDs in Server Applications

3. Future Products Using Flash Memory

3.1 What is happening with Flash Memory?

3.1.1 Flash Needs to Shrink

3.1.2 Technology Limitations and Consumer Needs

3.2 New Flash Technologies

3.2.1 New Flash Memory Architecture

3.2.1.1 IBM, Macronix and Qimonda

3.2.1.2 Samsung’s PRAM

3.2.1.3 Intel and STMicroelectronics PRAM

3.2.2 Other Cutting Edge Memory Technology

3.2.2.1 Samsung and 3D Stacking Techniques

3.2.2.2 Organic Materials in Flash Manufacturing

3.2.2.3 Memory Cell Technology

3.2.3 Flash Gives a Boost to PC Share

3.2.3.1 Windows Vista ReadyBoost and ReadyDrive and Intel’s Robson (Turbo Memory)

3.2.3.2 PC Vendors Support for Turbo Memory

3.2.4 Solid State Hard Drive and Hybrid Hard Drives

Table 3-1Percentages of Notebook PCs with Some Form of Internal Flash Storage

Figure 3-1Percentages of Notebook PCs with Some Form of Internal Flash Storage

3.2.4.1 How the HHD-Flash Market Will Play Out

3.3 New and Emerging Applications

3.3.1 B2C

3.3.1.1 Automobile Market

3.3.2 B2B

3.3.2.1 Data Storage

3.3.2.2 Solid State Drives (SSD) in the Business, Corporate and Military Markets

3.3.2.2.1 Market Segments

3.3.2.2.2 Core Applications

3.3.2.2.3 Other Business and Military Applications

4. Most Promising New Flash Memory Architectures

4.1 Phase Change Memory

4.1.1 Difference Between IBM’s and Samsung’s in Phase Change Architecture

4.1.2 3D Fabrication

4.2 Most Promising Consumer Applications and Devices for Flash Memory

4.3 SSDs for the Business and Corporate Markets

4.4 Successful Flash Manufacturing Strategies

4.4.1 Shifting Between Flash and DRAM

4.4.2 Flash Fab Capacity Trends

4.4.3 Variations in Flash and Standardization

4.4.4 Flash Joint Venture Strategies

4.5 Most Promising Types of Flash Memory

4.5.1 Flash Memory Types

4.5.2 Memory Cards

4.6 Future Directions and Trends

4.6.1 Flash Manufacturing Process Key Findings

4.6.2 Future Directions in the HDD-Flash Battle

4.6.3 Trends in the Flash Memory Market