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3G Femtocells and Beyond Opportunities & Service Scenarios in the Home 2009-2014

Published Date: June 2009
Published By: Juniper Research Limited
Page Count: 110
Order Code: R399-249
 
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Executive Summary
Introduction
Industry Update
Market Forecast Scenarios
3G Femtocell Access Point Forecast
3G Femtocell Subscribers Forecast
3G Femtocell Service Revenues Forecast
Market Drivers
Recommendations
1. Technology & Market Drivers
1.1 Definition
Figure 1.1: Femtocell Network Connectivity
Figure 1.2: Femtocell Network at Home
Figure 1.3 Femtocell Services in the Home
1.2 Network Hardware Elements
1.2.1 Chipsets
1.2.2 Access Points
Figure 1.4: ip.access Oyster 3G Femtocell Access Point
Figure 1.5: Airvana HubBub UMTS Femtocell Access Point
Figure 1.6 Alcatel-Lucent/Sagem Femtocell Access Point
1.2.3 Gateways
Figure 1.7: Femtocell Converged Gateway GENBAND G9
1.3 Recent Developments
1.3.1 3GPP Release 8 Standard
1.3.2 Interference
1.3.2 Business Case
1.3.3 Further Standards
1.4 Market Drivers
1.4.1 Personal Connectivity: “Always On”
Figure 1.8: Broadband Connectivity Demand Cycle
1.4.2 Poor In-Building Coverage
Figure 1.9: Voice vs. Data ARPU by Country (Japan, France, US, UK, South Korea, Brazil,China & Philippines) for 2008
1.4.3 Data Traffic Growth & New Services
i. Orange Reveals Digital Media Boom
ii. Cisco Data Traffic Forecast
Figure 1.10: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
iii. Growth of Mobile Commerce
Figure 1.11: Bank of America Mobile Banking Screens
Figure 1.12: mPoria Mobile Web Shopping Portal
iv. Mobile Web 2.0 - Future Applications and Services
v. Video iPod Ignites Portable Video Revolution
Figure 1.13: Mobile Data Drivers - The Role of Video
1.4.4 Data Traffic Offload - Cost Reduction
Figure 1.14: Mobile Broadband Traffic Volume vs. Revenue
1.4.5 Femtocell Challenges
1.4.6 Conclusion
Figure 1.15: Femtocell Market Drivers
2. Market Dynamics
2.1 Femto Forum Interview
2.1.1 Background/History
2.1.2 Forum’s Aims
2.1.3 Technical Considerations - Interference
2.1.4 Femtocell Standardisation
2.1.5 Business Case
2.1.6 Forum Targets 2009
2.1.7 Market Issues and Opportunities
2.2 Femtocell Trials
Table 2.1: 3G Home Femtocell Trials Split by 8 Key Regions
2.3 Femtocell Vendor Ecosystem
2.3.1 The Big Picture
2.3.2 Ecosystem Relationships
Table 2.2: Femtocell Ecosystem
3. Market Forecast Approach
3.1 Methodology
Figure 3.1: Femtocell Market Forecast Methodology
3.2 Geographical Splits
3.3 Residential Broadband Subscriber Forecast
Figure 3.2: Number of Consumer 3G/3.5G/3.9G Subscribers per Residential Broadband Subscriber Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Table 3.1: Number of Consumer 3G/3.5G/3.9G Subscribers per Residential Broadband
Subscriber Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Figure 3.3: Residential Broadband Subscribers as a Percentage of Total Households Split by Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Table 3.2: Residential Broadband Subscribers as a Percentage of Total Households Split by Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Figure 3.4: Residential Broadband Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Table 3.3: Residential Broadband Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
3.4 Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Forecast
Figure 3.5: Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Table 3.4: Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
3.5 Forecast Scenarios
Table 3.5: Femtocell Forecast Scenario Parameter Comparison: Baseline, Best & Worst Cases
4. Baseline Scenario
4.1 3G Femtocell Regional Forecast
4.1.1 North America
4.1.2 Western Europe
4.1.3 Far East & China and Rest of Asia Pacific
4.1.4 3G Femtocell Take-up and Access Points Forecasts
Figure 4.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by
Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by
8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 4.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 -
2014
Table 4.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 -2014
4.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units
4.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments
Figure 4.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments
Figure 4.4: Airvana HubBub UMTS Femtocell Access Point
Figure 4.5: Standalone 3G Femtocells Market Segmentation (%) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.4: Standalone 3G Femtocells Market Segmentation (%) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 4.6: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.5: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments
Figure 4.7: Netgear’s View of Home Connectivity
Figure 4.8: Netgear - Multi Function Broadband WiFi Gateway
Figure 4.9: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.6: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Pricing
Figure 4.10: picoChip PC302 Single-chip 3GPP Femtocell
Figure 4.11: 3G Femtocell Pricing ($) for Standalone and Integrated Product Types Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.7: 3G Femtocell Pricing ($) for Standalone and Integrated Product Types Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.4 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value
4.4.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market
Figure 4.12: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.8: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.4.2 Standalone Access Point Market
Figure 4.13: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.9: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.4.3 Integrated Access Point Market
Figure 4.14: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.10: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.5 3G Femtocell Subscribers
Figure 4.15: Ratio of 3G Consumer Subscribers to Residential Broadband Subscribers - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.11: Ratio of 3G Consumer Subscribers to Residential Broadband Subscribers - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 4.16: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 -
2014
Table 4.12: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 -2014
4.6 3G Femtocell Service Revenues
4.6.1 Package Types and Pricing
4.6.2 Service Revenues by Package Type
Figure 4.17: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 4.18: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by
8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.13: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 4.19: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by
8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.14: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.15: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.6.2 Service Revenues by Region
Figure 4.20: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario - 2014
Table 4.16: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
5. Best Case Scenario
5.1 3G Femtocell Take-up
Figure 5.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 5.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 -2014
Table 5.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario - 2014
5.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units
5.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments
Figure 5.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments
Figure 5.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments
Figure 5.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value
5.3.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market
Figure 5.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.3.2 Standalone Access Point Market
Figure 5.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.3.3 Integrated Access Point Market
Figure 5.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.4 3G Femtocell Subscribers
Figure 5.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario - 2014
5.5 3G Femtocell Service Revenues
5.5.1 Service Revenues by Package Type
Figure 5.10: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 5.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.10: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 5.12: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.12: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.5.2 Service Revenues by Region
Figure 5.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6. Worst Case Scenario
6.1 3G Femtocell Take-up
Figure 6.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 6.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario - 2014
Table 6.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units
6.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments
Figure 6.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments
Figure 6.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments
Figure 6.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value
6.3.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market
Figure 6.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.3.2 Standalone Access Point Market
Figure 6.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst
Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.3.3 Integrated Access Point Market
Figure 6.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.4 3G Femtocell Subscribers
Figure 6.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario - 2014
Table 6.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.5 3G Femtocell Service Revenues
6.5.1 Service Revenues by Package Type
Figure 6.10: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 6.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.10: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 6.12: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.12: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Worst Case
Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.5.2 Service Revenues by Region
Figure 6.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
7. Scenario Comparison and Analysis
7.1 3G Femtocell Take-up
Figure 7.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario
Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
Table 7.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario
Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
Figure 7.2: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario
Comparison Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case Split by 3 Key Regions 2014
Table 7.2: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario Comparison Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case Split by 3 Key Regions 2014
7.2 3G Femtocell Access Points Scenario Comparison
Figure 7.3: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
Table 7.3: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best
Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
7.3 3G Femtocell Subscribers Scenario Comparison
Figure 7.4: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best
Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
Table 7.4: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best
Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
7.4 3G Femtocell Service Revenues Scenario Comparison
Figure 7.5: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
Table 7.5: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
Figure 7.6: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014
Figure 7.7: 3G Femtocell New and Enhanced Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014
Table 7.6: 3G Femtocell New and Enhanced Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014
Figure 7.8: O2 Joggler
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