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Home > Communications > Telecommunications > General Telecom
Emerging Business Models in Voice: the impact of Skype and other private VoIP applications
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| Published Date:
September 2004
Published By:
Analysys Mason
Order Code:
R51-177
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0 Summary
1 Voice markets face increasingly severe fragmentation
1.1 Voice markets are fragmenting under different technologies and competition
1.2 Private VoIP applications are a new and potentially strong force for fragmentation
1.3 A critical mass of PVA users could overthrow existing market structures
2 PVAs are gaining acceptance in the market
2.1 PVAs have a strong heritage as Internet applications
2.2 A PVA bandwagon is rolling
2.3 But other players are contesting PVAs' potential market
3 PVA business models are uncertain
3.1 The voice market is vulnerable to segment targeting
3.2 Potential opportunities exist for new PVA players
3.3 But there is no single killer PVA business model
3.4 PVA players must adapt and evolve
4 A PVA critical-mass effect is possible
4.1 Market evolution could create the conditions for a PVA critical-mass effect
4.2 The potential impact of PVAs can be estimated
4.3 PVA adoption and usage could grow fast
4.4 Potential critical-mass impacts are significant
5 PVAs hasten the long-term restructuring of the voice market
5.1 PVAs could lead to a new market structure and value chains
5.2 There are key general impacts from the introduction of PVAs
5.3 Impacts will vary among different types of existing player
5.4 Fixed-line incumbents should consider two key strategic responses
Actions
List of figures and tables
Figure 2.1: Active users of Skype's and Vonage's VoBB services, January to August 2004
Table 2.1: Examples of private VoIP applications
Table 2.2: VoBB PSTN emulation services
Table 2.3: Telco/ISPs' competing VoBB services
Figure 3.1: Rate of growth in fixed traffic, mobile traffic, PSTN connections and active mobile subscriptions in larger Western European countries, 2002–3
Table 3.1: Key attributes for potential PVA players in selected industry segments
Figure 4.1: Key assumptions and inputs for PVA impact model
Figure 4.2: Numbers of potential PVA users in Western Europe, categorised into super, average and low users
Figure 4.3: Potential PVA revenues in Western Europe
Figure 4.4: Potential numbers of PVA users in Western Europe switching allegiance to VoIP and cancelling or downgrading PSTN subscriptions
Figure 4.5: Potential revenue losses to incumbent PSTN providers in Western Europe caused by PVAs
Figure 4.6: Potential proportion of total residential PSTN market lost to PVAs in Western Europe
Figure 5.1: Voice in a future PVA-impacted market
Figure 5.2: Fragmentation of voice usage across fixed and mobile markets |
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