Fibre In The Last Mile: The Business Case For FTTP and VDSL: Industry Research Report

Fibre In The Last Mile: The Business Case For FTTP and VDSL

Published Date: July 2006

Published By: Analysys Mason

Order Code: R51-211

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1 Exchange-based DSL will not be enough to support a full range of TV services: 1.1 Operators have a range of options to upgrade the last mile; 1.2 Faced with growing competitive threats, operators have to make long-term decisions now
2 FTTP may cost three times more per home than an FTTC deployment: 2.1 Remote cabinet-based ADSL2+ is the next step beyond ADSL2+; 2.2 VDSL2 expands the capabilities of cabinet-based ADSL2+; 2.3 VDSL2 will cost EUR300-400 per home passed; 2.4 FTTP is typically deployed in point-to-point Ethernet or PON architectures; 2.5 Video distribution introduces a further significant cost; 2.6 FTTP will cost around three times more than VDSL2
3 Compression and access technologies compete to meet demand for new services: 3.1 Applications will continue to demand higher bandwidths; 3.2 Major uncertainties remain over latent demand for pay VOD and videotelephony; 3.3 Demand for bandwidth will be offset by the continual development of compression technologies; 3.4 Some demand is created by the very existence of the technologies; 3.5 FTTP can offer the future-proofing that VDSL cannot; 3.6 Demand trends suggest that in receptive markets 58% of homes will want over 30Mbit/s of guaranteed bandwidth by 2014
4 The structure of TV markets will be a major factor in investment decisions: 4.1 Considerable regulatory uncertainty remains over VDSL and FTTP; 4.2 Operators may find it hard to tie in content, though the regulatory situation is improving; 4.3 Dominant pay-TV broadcasters may choose IPTV for interactive services only
5 Demand for bandwidth may be categorised into four distinct scenarios
6 Under most scenarios, VDSL looks a sound investment option: 6.1 The model forecasts ROI in a typical Western European country over 20 years; 6.2 The existing pay-TV market structure creates different outlooks for ARPU; 6.3 Operators must consider losses from not upgrading networks as well as gains from upgrading them; 6.4 There are very few scenarios where widespread FTTP deployment makes good commercial sense; 6.5 In most circumstances, VDSL looks to be a sensible option - at least within a time frame of ten years; 6.6 No market looks ideal for widespread FTTP roll-out, but France comes closest Actions
Figures and tables: Figure 0.1: Positioning of Western European countries under four demand scenarios; Figure 0.2: Four scenarios for ROI on FTTP deployment, plus negative cashflow from not upgrading network; Figure 1.1: DSL downstream speeds by length of copper loop; Figure 1.2: Distribution of local-loop lengths in selected Western European countries and the USA; Figure 1.3: Options for last-mile fibre deployments by telcos; Figure 1.4: Comparison of the frequency distribution of xDSL technologies; Table 2.1: Key cost components of VDSL2 deployment; Figure 2.1: Home run network infrastructure; Figure 2.2: Active star network infrastructure; Figure 2.3: Passive Optical Network (PON) network infrastructure; Table 2.2: Strengths and weaknesses of different FTTP network topologies; Figure 2.4: Video in an xDSL network; Figure 2.5: Estimated capital costs of various network installation techniques; Table 2.3: Key cost variables involved in a GPON deployment; Figure 2.6: Sensitivity analysis of GPON deployment per home passed; Figure 2.7: Cabinet interconnection topologies; Table 3.1: Demand for bandwidth from broadband applications; Figure 3.1: The impact of codec compression on the bandwidth demands of digital video; Figure 3.2: Forecast of demand for broadband access in a receptive market, 2006-14; Figure 5.1: Four scenarios of demand for bandwidth; Figure 5.2: Demand for bandwidth modelled under four scenarios, 2006-14; Figure 5.3: Broadband access demand in Scenario A, 2006-14; Figure 5.4: Broadband access demand in Scenario B, 2006-14; Figure 5.5: Broadband access demand in Scenario C, 2006-14; Figure 5.6: Broadband access demand in Scenario D, 2006-14; Figure 6.1: Telcos’ share of residential broadband market under three network build scenarios; Figure 6.2: ROI on FTTP deployment under the four scenarios; Figure 6.3: ROI on FTTP deployment, four scenarios, plus negative cashflow from not upgrading the network; Figure 6.4: Broadband versus TV bandwidth demand; Figure 6.5: ROI on VDSL deployment, four scenarios; Figure 6.6: ROI on FTTP deployment under the four scenarios, plus negative cashflow from not upgrading the network; Figure 6.7: Household pay-TV penetration, 2005; Figure 6.8: Disposable income and receptiveness to new goods and services in Western Europe; Figure 6.9: Positioning of Western European countries in relation to the four scenarios

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