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Home > Computers and Information Technology > Networking > Networks
Next-Generation Network Architecture: What and When?
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| Published Date:
January 2008
Published By:
Analysys Mason
Order Code:
R51-254
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- 0 Summary
- 1 NGN upgrades are underway, but outcomes are uncertain
- 1.1 There are three basic approaches to network transformation
- 1.2 Most incumbent operators have three explicit reasons for NGNs
- 1.3 Some incumbent operators have a stronger incentive to re-engineer than others
- 1.4 Operators hope that heavy investment will deliver less heavily regulated forms of market dominance
- 2 NGNs both reduce and transform the network cost base
- 2.1 The capital cost of an NGN can be substantially higher than that of next-generation access
- 2.2 A single network will result in lower cash costs, but not necessarily lower capex
- 2.3 Real cost savings are often out of line with long-term plans
- 2.4 NGNs transform the asset structure of operators
- 3 Serious doubts remain over the scale of the new revenue for NGN operators
- 3.1 Different approaches to NGN investment reveal different revenue mixes and different co-dependencies
- 3.2 Lower underlying costs may damage the unit value of fixed voice
- 3.3 IPTV may take off in the residential market, but revenue opportunities for telcos’ retail arms may still be limited
- 3.4 Demand for managed services from SMEs is likely to bring limited revenue growth
- 3.5 Networked enterprise IT offers revenue growth for players with scale and credibility
- 3.6 Opportunities for wholesale divisions may be much greater
- 3.7 NGN’s centralised service delivery runs counter to recent trends
- 4 Regulation threatens the benefits to incumbents of NGNs
- 4.1 A set of increasingly familiar problems surrounds NGAs
- 4.2 Operators may have to hand on NGN cost savings to competitors, in the form of lower interconnect charges
- 4.3 Structural and functional separation raise further complications
- 4.4 The vertically integrated model persists
- 5 NGNs are a better investment than NGAs
- 5.1 NGNs reduce costs, but growth in business services revenue requires focused execution
- 5.2 NGA-only approaches are focused too closely on defending a share of a low-opportunity market
- 5.3 Fibre is the ultimate goal, but core transformation is the priority
- Actions
Companies discussed in this report: AT&T, BT, Deutsche Telekom, eircom, France Telecom, KPN, Slovak Telecom, Telecom Italia, Telstra, Verizon.
List of Figures and Tables
Figure 1.1: IP MPLS overlay for fixed voice (partial PSTN replacement): before and after
Figure 1.2: Fixed network evolution: current situation and strategy of selected incumbent operators
Figure 1.3: Simplified overview of legacy overlays
Figure 1.4: Simplified overview of BT’s 21CN switching and transmission
Figure 1.5: Simplified overview of Deutsche Telekom’s FTTN network
Figure 1.6: Simplified overview of KPN’s next-generation switching and transmission
Figure 1.7: Average spend per minute and volume of voice calls on fixed and mobile networks in Western Europe
Figure 1.8: Major European incumbents’ exposure to fixed voice
Figure 1.9: Operating margins of retail fixed divisions of major European incumbent operators
Figure 2.1: FTEs in BT Group, by division, FY2003/4 and FY2006/7
Figure 2.2: Fixed switched voice volume as a proportion of total fixed and mobile switched voice
Table 3.1: Revenue impact of different next-generation scenarios
Figure 3.1: A typical NGN service-delivery architecture
Figure 5.1: Key financial outcomes of an NGN-only implementation
Figure 5.2: Main revenue streams from an NGN-only implementation
Figure 5.3: Key financial outcomes of an NGN-only implementation for an operator with lower IT revenue
Figure 5.4: Key financial outcomes of an NGA-only implementation
Figure 5.5: Main revenue streams from an NGA-only implementation
Figure 5.6: Key financial outcomes of an NGA-plus-NGN implementation
Figure 5.7: Main revenue streams from an NGA-plus-NGN implementation
Figure 5.8: Key financial outcomes of an NGA-plus-NGN implementation in which the NGN element is delayed until Year 4
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