UK Plastic Cards: Outlook to 2010: Industry Research Report

UK Plastic Cards: Outlook to 2010

Published Date: June 2009

Published By: Datamonitor

Page Count: 43

Order Code: R313-52311

Questions About This Report

E-mail a Colleague

Printable Page

Fax Your Order

Description

Table of Contents

Similar
Products

Overview: Catalyst; Summary; Table of Contents; Table of figures; Table of tables; The UK credit card market: a ticking time bomb?; The cards market is faced with challenges to revenues and costs; Unemployment is growing and will result in further growth in card write-offs; As insolvencies and unemployment rise, card write-offs will inevitably increase shortly afterwards; Bankruptcy orders and IVAs have increased over time and this trend will continue in 2009 and 2010; Consumers continue to accumulate debt, potentially building up further pain for issuers; Balances on cards are growing, while transaction values fall, causing a double impact on issuer revenues; Repayment rates consistently below 100% support the growth in balances outstanding; Growth in personal debt is not restricted to cards and is a further major area of concern for card issuers; Existing account holders are taking out more cards, spreading their debts more widely; Recessionary consumer behavior also represents a major challenge to issuers; The value of transactions in 2008 fell below 2007 levels; The total number of transactions and average spend per transaction is decreasing; Consumers are also relying more heavily on cash; Sharp falls in consumer confidence are underpinning the slowdown in card activity; Also of concern to issuers is that house prices are not expected to stabilize until 2010; In addition to the immediate threats, the long term challenge from debit shows no signs of letting up; Card usage rates for debit are growing at a cost to credit; Datamonitor forecasts a 6.4% fall in the credit card market in 2009; 2009 will see a 6.4% drop in the credit card market and there will be a further drop of 1.5% in 2010; The volume and value of credit card POS transactions will see a 7% drop over 2009 and 2010; Credit card use at ATMs will drop by 19.8% in 2009 and will not recover; Macro level indicators suggest 2009-2010 will be a difficult period; The range of scenarios show the credit card market declining from an optimistic 1.6% to a pessimistic 10.8%; Debit cards will remain stable with value growth of 4.95% across 2009 and 2010; Debit will grow 9.67% at the POS and drop 2.2% at ATMs by 2010; Issuers must manage risk more carefully yet increase card usage if they are to navigate through the downturn; Managing defaults through identification and opening dialogue can help relieve pressure on the market; Innovations in repayments will help both short term and long term growth; Portfolio optimisation must continue to help limit issuer exposure to risk; Issuers need to find out why consumers are not using cards; Repayment rates can be improved by incentivising consumers; Issuers must improve consumer reluctance to use credit cards for small scale transactions; Rewards and loyalty programs remain a key way to help driver card usage
Appendix: Supplementary data; Datamonitor's forecast for the credit card market under a neutral scenario; Datamonitor's forecast for the credit card market under an optimistic scenario; Datamonitor's forecast for the credit card market under a pessimistic scenario/; Datamonitor's forecast for the debit card market under a neutral scenario; Definitions; AAGR; APACS; Average transaction value; Balances outstanding; Bank of England base rate; CAGR; Charge card; Credit card; Debit card; Methodology; Primary research; Secondary research; Further reading; Ask the analyst; Datamonitor consulting; Disclaimer
List of Tables: Table 1: Historic and forecast view of the credit card market under a neutral scenario; Table 2: Across all scenarios the credit card market will see a drop in 2009-2010; Table 3: Historic and forecast view of the credit card market under a neutral scenario; Table 4: Neutral scenario of the historic and forecast credit card market 2006-2010; Table 5: Neutral forecast of the consumer credit market, 2006-2010; Table 6: Optimistic scenario of the historic and forecast credit card market 2006-2010; Table 7: Optimistic forecast of the consumer credit market 2006-2010; Table 8: Pessimistic scenario of the historic and forecast credit card market 2006-2010; Table 9: Pessimistic forecast of the UK consumer credit market, 2006-2010; Table 10: Neutral scenario of the historic and forecast debit card market 2006-2010; Table 11: Current relevant publications, 2008-2009; Table 12: Future relevant publications, 2009
List of Figures: Figure 1: Growth in unemployment points to a sharp increase in write-offs in 2009; Figure 2: Bankruptcy orders and IVAs have increased every quarter since Q4 2007, a trend that is likely to continue; Figure 3: Despite falling transaction values balances outstanding continue to rise, creating potential problems for the future; Figure 4: Repayment rates have not risen above 100% since Q2 07; Figure 5: Following a period of decline, overdraft amounts outstanding are increasing; Figure 6: Card volumes increased in Q1 09, despite a drop in account numbers; Figure 7: Monthly transaction values saw a decline from September 2008 onwards; Figure 8: The average value and number of transactions decreased from September 2008 onwards; Figure 9: ATM withdrawals follow seasonal patterns and saw an increase in Q4 of 2008; Figure 10: The drop in ATM withdrawal values in Q4 08 demonstrates that consumers are moving into recessionary behavior; Figure 11: The Consumer Confidence Index declined in 2008, which explains the drop off in spending and card activity; Figure 12: House prices have declined sine 2007 and will not stabilize until 2010; Figure 13: Debit was growing while credit shrank in Q4 08 and Q1 09; Figure 14: The combined fall of POS and ATM transactions will strongly impact the credit card market; Figure 15: Credit card transactions will decline in both volume and value at the POS in 2009 and 2010; Figure 16: ATM credit card withdrawals will shrink through to 2010; Figure 17: Under all scenarios the credit card market will contract in 2009; Figure 18: Despite the downturn debit will continue to grow through to 2010 and beyond

	Research Index \| Publishers \| My Account \| Contact Us \| About MindBranch
	Welcome Guest (Login/Register) \| 0 items